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CHINA GRAIN (20151126)  

2015-12-26 22:33:58|  分类: Farmer report( |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Thursday  Nov 26

Volume Grains, Issue 20151126

Inside This Issue

News Briefs. 3

1 Monthly Analysis of China’s Paddy Price and Supply & Demand  3

2 Monthly Analysis of China’s Wheat Price and Supply & Demand  11

3 Monthly Analysis of China’s Corn Market and Supply & Demand Balance  19

4 Beer Output of China’s Scale Enterprises and Barely Supply and Demand Balance Analysis, 32

Weather Summary (November 17, 2015- November 23, 2015) 39

Specific Agricultural Meteorology Analysis by Regions: 39

Crop Conditions. 40

Weekly Agriculture Condition. 40

Winter Wheat 40

Weather Forecast (November 24, 2015- November 30, 2015) 41

Grain auction. 42

Grain Purchase. 44

Price Trend. 45

1 USD Value and exchange rate of key currency  45

2 Comprehensive Futures Price Index of Grain  46

3 Spot Price Index and Processing Profit 46

4 Wheat and Flour 49

5 Corn, Starch and Energy. 52

6 Paddy and Rice. 57

7 Barley and coarse cereals. 58

8 Ocean freight of bulk grain. 61

9 Price & Change. 62

10 Index of Table & Fig. 70

11 Report Profile. 73

 

 

 

CHINA GRAIN

Suite 1509, JinTai building, No.1 Xibahe southern Street, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100028, PRC

Analyst: Ma Wen Feng

        86-10-64402156

    

 

 

 

 

 

Service. Lisaa.li @boabc.com

Fax:86-10-64402039

Web site: www. cnagri.com

Bloghttp://t.qq.com/mawenfenglg931

 


 

 


News Briefs

 

l  The MOA actively carries forward agricultural structure adjustment with future thinking of consolidating and promoting superior producing region and appropriately reducing non-dominant producing region. In view of larger domestic corn inventory, the state plans to maintain the planting area of corn in non-dominant producing area of farming and pastoral cross filed at 6.667 million hectares by 2020, reducing more than 3.333 million hectares from now.

l  China Grain Reserves Corporation reported on November 19 that it has emptied a warehouse capacity of 80 million tons for corn purchasing and can meet the demand of national temporary purchase of corn. As of November 15, the purchase volume of temporary stored corn has reached 6.41 million tons.

l  Since the state lunched policy-based grain purchase in 2015, Heilongjiang province has purchased 12.104 million tons policy-based grain including 7.64 million tons paddy and 4.464 million tons corn.

 

 

10 Index of Table & Fig

 

Fig1 Paddy Monthly price & Actually Changes. 4

Fig2 Monthly price  of 3 Kinds Paddy. 4

Fig3 Rice Production by Scale Mills in 2009 ~ 2015. 4

Fig4 Paddy Consumption by Scale Mills in 2009 ~ 2015. 5

Fig5 Monthly Operating RateChina Ricemills2006 ~ 2015. 5

Fig6 Constitution of Monthly Consumption, China Paddy2007 ~ 2015. 5

Fig7 Import & Export Volume of Paddy China. 6

Fig8 Monthly End of Stock and Safety Index, China Paddy2006 ~ 2015. 6

Fig9 Monthly Harvest Volume & progress of china paddy. 6

Fig10 Procurement Progress of China Paddy by Scale Enterprise,2011-2015. 7

Fig11 state-owned Paddy Auction Deals & Price Trend. 7

Fig12 China’s Paddy inventory Forms of Monthly End,210-2015. 7

Fig13 China’s Paddy inventory Forms of latest Monthly End. 7

Fig14The inventory and sales process of Paddy farmers,2010-2015. 8

Fig15 Crop Years Areas and Production, China Paddy1991/92 ~ 2015/16. 8

Fig16 Crop Years Consumption inventory, China Paddy1991/92 ~ 2015/16. 9

Fig17 Crop Years End of Stock and Safety Index, China Paddy1991/92 ~ 2015/16. 9

Fig18 Readjustment Of Crop Years End Of Stock And Safety Index, China Paddy. 9

Table1 China's Paddy plant and Balance Sheet(Crop Year,2015,11) 9

Fig19 China wheat monthly price & Actully Changes. 12

Fig20 Scale Flourmills’ Production in 2007 ~ 2015. 12

Fig21 Scale Flourmills’ Wheat Consumption in 2007 ~ 2015. 12

Fig22 Monthly Operating RateChina Flourmills,2005-2015. 13

Fig23 Constitution of Monthly Consumption, China Wheat2005 ~ 2015. 13

Fig24 Monthly Import & Export volume of wheat,China. 13

Fig25 Monthly End of Stock and Safety Index, China Wheat,2008-2015. 14

Fig26 volume of purchase in main areas During purchase season. 14

Fig27 state-owned Wheat Auction Deals & Price Trend. 14

Fig28 China’s Wheat inventory Forms of Monthly End,2009-2015. 15

Fig29 China’s Wheat Expected inventory Forms of latest Monthly End. 15

Fig30 The inventory and sales process of wheat farmers,2009-2015. 15

Fig31 Crop Years of Areas and production, China Wheat1991/92 ~ 2015/16. 16

Fig32 Crop Years Consumption inventory, China Wheat1991/92 ~ 2015/16. 16

Fig33 Crop Years End of Stock and Safety Index, China Wheat1991/92 ~ 2015/16. 16

Fig34 Readjustment Of Crop Years End Stock And Safety Index, China Wheat 17

Table2 China's Wheat plant and Balance Sheet(Crop Year,2015,11) 17

Table3 China's Hight quality Wheat Balance Sheet(Crop Year,2015,11) 17

Fig35 China Corn Monthly Price & Actully Changes. 20

Fig36 China wheat/Corn Monthly Price Ratio. 20

Fig37 Feed Production & Corn Consumption by Scale Mills,2009-2015. 21

Fig38 Monthly Constitution of China Feed2008 ~ 2015. 21

Fig39 Monthly Constitution of China Feed of Key Enterprise2011 ~ 2015. 21

Fig40 Monthly Constitution of China Feed of different Animal For Key Enterprise2011 ~ 2015. 22

Fig41 Formula Feed Production & Operating Rate by Scale Mills,2009-2015. 22

Fig42 Monthly Constitution of China Feedstuff 2008 ~ 2015. 22

Fig43 Refined vegetable oil output by Scale Mills,2009-2015. 23

Fig44 Import & Domistic Production of vegetable oil,2008-2015. 23

Fig45 Product/Demand of Domistic Oil Meal,2009-2015. 23

Fig46 Monthly Total supply stock & Stock/consump of Protein Feed. 24

Fig47 Monthly Price Of Soybean Meal In China. 24

Fig48 Monthly Domestic supply of Un-corn bulk raw material i,2008-2015. 24

Fig49 Monthly Domestic supply & Demand of Un-corn bulk raw material,2009-2015. 25

Fig50 by-product Import of Grain & Oil,2010-2015. 25

Fig51 Import Volume of feed grain in China. 25

Fig52 Consumption of Corn starch in Key enterprise. 26

Fig53 Production of Corn starch in Key enterprise & national 26

Fig54 Industry Consumption of Corn. 26

Fig56 Constitution of Monthly Consumption, China Corn2008 ~ 2015. 27

Fig57 Import & Export Volume of Corn china. 27

Fig58 Monthly Harvest Progress of Corn china. 27

Fig59 Monthly End of Stock and Safety Index, China Corn,2005-2015. 28

Fig60 state-owned Corn  Auction Deals & Price Trend. 28

Fig61 China’s Corn inventory Forms of Monthly End,2009-2015. 28

Fig62 China’s Corn Expected inventory Forms of latest Monthly End. 28

Fig63 The inventory and sales process of corn farmers,2009-2015. 29

Fig64 Crop Years End of Areas and Production, China Corn1991/92 ~ 2014/15. 29

Fig65 Crop Years Consumption inventory, China Corn1991/92 ~ 2014/15. 30

Fig66 Crop Years End of Stock and Safety Index, China Corn1991/92 ~ 2014/15. 30

Fig67 Monthly Readjustment Of Crop Years End Stock And Safety Index, China Corn. 30

Fig68 Crop Years Safety Index and Prices, China Corn1991/92 ~ 2014/15. 31

Table4 China's Corn plant and Balance Sheet(2015,11) 31

Fig69 China Barley Monthly Price & Actully Changes. 32

Fig70 CIFof barely & Price Ratio of  Import barely/ Domistic Wheat 33

Fig71 Price Ratio of Corn /barely in China. 33

Fig72 Scale Brewery's monthly Production in 2007 ~ 2015. 34

Fig73 Scale Brewery's Cereal & Barely Consumption in 2009 ~ 2015. 34

Fig74 Constitution of Monthly Consumption, China barely2008 ~ 2015. 34

Fig75 Barely import of china  in 2009 ~ 2015. 35

Fig76 Monthly End of Stock and Safety Index, China barley2008 ~ 2015. 35

Fig77 China’s Wheat inventory Forms of Monthly End,2009-2015. 35

Fig78 China’s Wheat inventory Forms of latest Month. 36

Fig79 Crop Years End of Areas and Production, China Barley1998/99 ~ 2015/16. 36

Fig80 Constitution ofCrop Yearly Consumption, China barely1998/99 ~ 2014/15. 36

Fig81 Crop Years End of Stock and Safety Index, China Barley1991/92 ~ 2015/16. 37

Fig82 Monthly Readjustment Of Crop Years End Stock And Safety Index, China Barley. 37

Table5 China's Barley plant and Balance Sheet(Crop Year,2015,11) 37

Table6 Precipitation and Temperatures Last Seven Days of main Provinces. 39

Table7 Major Provinces Areas &Crop Condition of Winter wheat , 2015/2016. 39

Table8 Crop Condition of Late Paddy, 2015/2016. 40

Fig83 China Grain Auction Deals. 41

Fig84 Wheat Auction Deals & Price Trend. 41

Fig85 Trend of Trading Ratio of Wheat Auctions(%) 42

Table9 China State-owned Wheat Auctions. 42

Fig86 Trend of Auction Sales of Paddy Procured at Protective Price. 42

Fig87 Trend of Auction Sales price of Paddy Procured at Protective Price. 42

Fig88 Corn Auction Deals & Price Trend. 43

Fig89 Trend of Trading Ratio of Corn Auctions(%) 43

Fig90 Daily Comprehensive Index of US Dollar 44

Fig91 Daily Exchange Rate of US$/RMBYuan. 44

Fig92 Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate(%) 44

Fig93 Comparison of Monetary value VS China Cereals Futures Prices Index. 45

Fig94 Comparison of Monetary value VS International Cereals Futures Prices Index. 45

Fig95 Weekly Agr-Price Index And Trading Volume Of Major Produce In 60 Maim Wholesale Markets  46

Fig96 Weekly Trading Volume Of MajorLivestock,aquatic&Grain Maim Wholesale Markets. 46

Fig97 Weekly Trading Volume Of Major Grain in Maim Wholesale Markets(0000Mt) 46

Fig99 Weekly Trading Volume Of MajorVegetable& Fruit In 60 Maim Wholesale Markets. 47

Fig100 Price index and of china china husbandry. 47

Fig101 Price index and of Crude Grain and Production. 47

Fig102 Profit Of Grain Processing. 48

Fig103 Price and of Globe Grain. 48

Fig104 Weekly Wholesale Prices of Wheat Flour, China. 48

Fig105 Weekly Wholesale Prices of Wheat Flour, 1st grade & 2nd grade,China(yuan/Mt) 48

Fig106 Weekly Trading Volume Of Flour in Maim Wholesale Markets(0000Mt) 49

Fig107 Weekly Wholesale Prices of Wheat, China. 49

Fig108 Comparison of Wheat Futures US$ Prices, CZCE vs. CBOT. 50

Fig109 Wheat Spot Price Between Domestic And US-CIF. 50

Fig110 FOB of main wheat export states. 50

Fig111 Weekly Wholesale Prices of Corn, China. 51

Fig112 Corn Futures US$ PriceDCE vs. CBOT. 51

Fig113 Corn Spot Price Gap Between Domestic And US-CIF. 51

Fig114  International pricer of main Corn states. 52

Fig115 Weekly Wholesale Prices of Corn starch, China. 52

Fig116  Future &Wholesale Prices of Corn starch, China. 52

Fig117 Future &Main province Wholesale Prices of Eggs, China. 53

Fig118 Weekly Wholesale Price of China Alcohol, starch& Corn. 53

Fig119 Fuel Ethanol & Oil Futures Prices CBOT. 53

Fig120 Price Ratio of Fuel oil /ethanol Futures  In CBOT. 54

Fig121 Fuel Ethanol Futures Prices of CBOT& China. 54

Fig122 Price ratio of ethanol to Corn in china and USA. 54

Fig123 Price of livehog in china and USA. 55

Fig124 Price ratio of livehog to Corn in china and USA. 55

Fig125 National weekly Price of Chicken & ,Egg to in china. 55

Fig126 Price ratio of hog ,Pork,Chicken,Egg to Feed in china. 56

Fig127 Weekly Wholesale Prices of Indica Paddy and Japonica Paddy, China. 56

Fig128 Weekly Wholesale Prices of Indica rice and Japonica rice, China. 56

Fig129 Weekly Trading Volume Of Rice in Maim Wholesale Markets(0000Mt) 56

Fig130 Price of Rough Rice of CBOT and Early Indica Paddy of CZCE. 57

Fig131 Rice Spot Price Gap Between Domestic And Foreign. 57

Fig132 Barley Future price of ASX and ICE. 58

Fig133 Barley Spot Price Gap Between Domestic And Foreign. 58

Fig134 Barley Spot Price in main plant state. 58

Fig135 Soybean Future price of Dalian & CBOT. 59

Fig136 Domestic soybean price and Distribution price of Import soybean. 59

Fig137 No-Genetically modified soybean price in main state. 59

Fig138 Genetically modified soybean price in main exp-state. 60

Fig139 Price of oats& sorghum in main ex-state. 60

Fig140 Grain ocean freight Rates of China. 60

Fig141 Globe’s Grain ocean freight Rates to China. 61

Table10 Globe’s Grain Future Daily Prices. 61

Table11 China’s Grain & Product Wholesale Weekly Prices in Major Provinces. 62

Table12 Globe’s Grain Wholesale Prices in Major States. 67

Table13 Weekly Globe’s Grain ocean freight Rates to China. 68

 

 

 

11 Report Profile

 

China Grains Market Weekly Report is one of the core reports of Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Ltd.(BOABC). It was the first regular report published ever since BOABC was founded and was also the first regular report tracing grain supply and demand in China. Besides, it also contains market price, industry development and enterprises’ operations etc.. Many grain varieties are included, such as wheat, corn, rice, barley, soybean and tubers.

 

By monitoring grain supply and demand and price in domestic and international market, the report facilitates grain producing, processing and logistics enterprises to grasp the market trend and take preemptive chances.

 

Based on whole research on grain market, the report also analyzes and predicts performance of agriculture, grain and food industry economy to help enterprises develop reasonable strategic direction and become an important member in China and world economy.

 

    Under the background of global economy integration, grain, cotton, oil, metals, minerals and other commodities have obvious attributes of financial products, whose price trends are also significantly affected by global macro-economy. So the report also makes analysis on macro-economy. 

   

    The report is divided into the following aspects: News Flash, Hot Spot, Weather Condition, Crop Condition, Grain Purchase and Trade, Grain auction and Price Trend. In the hot spot section, following contents are included in regular: 1) domestic and global grain production and consumption 2) consumption and balance sheet of major grain varieties 3) consumption and balance sheet of major processed grain products 4) performance of planting, processing and logistics industry. 

 

    The report not only provides decision-making references for large enterprises but also provide guidance for the direction of the news media. What’s more important, it is also the major reference for central and local agricultural departments to make policy and major data source of FAO, International Grains Council and World Bank etc.

 

Strategic support organizations: Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Commerce, State Administration of Grain, China Customs, National Bureau of Statistics are major sources of data in the report. Meanwhile, the report will send back to these organizations for their references.

 

Strategic Media Partners: domestic media includes Xinhua News Agency, Economic Information Daily, International Finance, Reference News, Global Times, CCTV Economic Channel, New Countryside Daily of the Ministry of Commerce, Beijing Business Today, South Weekend and the Twenty-first Century Business Report. International media includes Reuters, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, The New York Times, Washington Post and other famous international media.

 

Strategic Cooperation Enterprises: domestic enterprises include COFCO, Sino-grain, Chinatex Corporation, Chongqing Grain Group, Jilin Grain Group, Lenovo, Founder, New Hope Liuhe, Haid, Zhengbang, Shuanghui, Xiamen Mingsui Grains&Oils Trading, Fujian C&D, Four Gardener, Wudeli Flour Group, Fada Flour Group etc.. Financial institutions include China Merchants Bank, CITIC Securities, Ping An Securities, Co-win Capital, CICC, Galaxy Securities, Luzheng Futures etc.

 

International enterprises include:

 

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