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China’s food prosperity index was 9.10% in October  

2016-12-20 11:48:51|  分类: 食品行业研究 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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In October, industrial consumption, investment, output and profit margin of China’s food industry all declined to some extent, China’s food prosperity index slightly dropped to 9.10%.

1 Consumption condition: the monthly retail value of catering industry was 349.2 billion yuan in October, increased by 10.0% year on year and accounted for 11.22% of total consumption of the whole society in the same month, the proportion was in a high level of this year. The retail turnover of food commodities of enterprises above designated size was 187.8 billion yuan, increasing by 9.1% year on year, accounting for 14.84% of total retail value of all enterprises above designated size. Synthesizing catering and food retail of enterprises above designated size, the total food consumption was 537.0 billion yuan in October, increasing 9.66% year on year, accounting for 17.26% of total consumption of whole society, the proportion slightly decreased year on year.

Deducting the influence of price factor, in October, the actual consumption of catering industry increased 6.12%, retail volume of grain and oil products increased 8.62%, food consumption totally increased 5.75%. The growth rate of food consumption deducting the influence of price factor in October decreased to some extent compared with that in the months before, which restrained prosperity index.

As for major enterprises, the consumption value of catering enterprises above designated size was 85.5 billion yuan in October, increased by 4.7% year on year, accounted for 24.48% of total catering consumption of the whole society, the proportion declined 1.2% from the same period last year. As for subdivisions of food industry, the consumption value of grain & oil products, beverage and liquor & tobacco respectively was 132.4 billion yuan, 19.0 billion yuan and 36.4 billion yuan, increasing by 9.11%, 8.9% and 7.5% year on year respectively; according to historical data, they respectively increased by 9.8%, 9.2% and 6.4%.

According to the Ministry of Commerce’s monitoring data on key commercial enterprises, retail value of food commodities, beverage and liquor & tobacco respectively increased 10.2%, 8.9% and 5.9%; deducting the influence of price, national commodity retail increased 3.46% as a whole, of which, the growth rate of food, beverage and liquor & tobacco respectively was 6.58%, 8.70% and 5.70%. Nominal growth rate of sales revenue of food commodities of large scale enterprises kept stable compared with that in the month earlier, deducting the influence of price, the actual growth rate declined, which restrained the rise of prosperity index of food industry.

From January to October, online food consumption of the whole society increased 28.8%, seeing fastest growth among various consumer goods. Rapid growth of online consumption obviously impacts traditional business channels, operators should pay attention to modern business channels and ensure that their market shares will not be lost for modern technology upgrading.

Synthesizing the sales growth rates of whole society consumption and key commercial enterprises, the actual consumption growth of national food industry was 4.84% in October, seeing obvious decline from the month before, which restrained the rise of prosperity index. 

2 Supply side, domestic output: In October, the nominal growths of agricultural and sideline products manufacturing, food manufacturing industry and beverage respectively were 6.5%, 8.6% and 9.5%, respectively increasing 0.6%, 0.6% and 3.3% year on year. Deducting the influence of factory price, the growth rate of output of whole society was 4.9%; the growth rates of actual output of agricultural and sideline products manufacturing, food manufacturing industry and beverage respectively were 5.65%, 8.49% and 10.72%, the growth rate of comprehensive output of food industry increased to 8.29%, seeing some decline.

In import aspect, In October, the total import value of vegetable oil, edible animal products, liquor and rice & flour products was 2.564 billion dollars (converted into 17.113  billion yuan, up 18.53% year on year), increasing 13.13% year on year. Obvious growth of food imports impacted domestic production index and became one of important factors restraining domestic prosperity index.

By varieties, the import values of vegetable oil, edible animal products, liquor, rice & flour products and dried and fresh fruits respectively were 241 million dollars, 1.624 billion dollars, 254 million dollars, 91.973 million dollars and 354 million dollars, increasing by -26.98%, 22.90%, -3.03%, 20.67% and 27.56% year on year separately. Sharp growth of imports of meats, dried & fresh fruits and rice & flour products influenced domestic output and market prices.

Calculated at a price mark-up ratio of 50% in middle link, the converted terminal consumption of various imported foods was 25.67 billion yuan, accounting for 9.39% of total consumption of catering and food enterprises above designated enterprises and 4.78% of total food and catering consumption of the whole society. Import value of food from January to October accumulatively reached 258.4 billion yuan, increasing 31.9% year on year, accounting for 5.58% of statistical food consumption. Imported processed food has had deep influence on domestic food industry, which should be paid attention to, and imported food in domestic big cities has occupied an important position and had heavy impact on the operation and production of domestic large scale food and beverage enterprises.

3 Investment condition: in October, the investment in agricultural and sideline products, food manufacturing, beverage and accommodation & catering respectively was 117.518 billion yuan, 54.952 billion yuan, 39.237 billion yuan and 62.147 billion yuan, increasing by 10.59%, 8.98%, 1.00% and -1.56% year on year respectively. The total investment in these five industries was 273.854 billion yuan, increasing by 5.9% year on year, accounting for 4.8% of total investment of whole society. Growth rate of investment in food industry in October increased greatly, but it’s still in a historical low level. The accumulative investment was 2.24401 trillion yuan from January to October, increasing 4.5% year on year, the lowest growth rate among that of the same month since 2008.

Deducting the influence of price rise, monthly investment of the whole society actually increased 7.6%. By segments, the actual investment in agricultural and sideline products, food manufacturing, beverage and accommodation & catering respectively increased by 9.4%, 7.8%, -0.2% and -2.8% and the comprehensive growth rate was 4.7%. The monthly growth rate of investment in food industry in October was relatively low since March, 2008, which obviously restrained prosperity index.

4 From the perspective of industry profitability, as for grain processing link, in October, the aggregate price index of raw grain was 2288yuan/ton, the wholesale price of processed grain was 3638yuan/ton, the price differences rate was 59.04% and increased to some extent. Changes of power price brought about changes of processing cost. Synthesizing the prices of rice, flour, starch and alcohol and corresponding raw grain prices and corresponding processing cost, the gross profit margin of grain processing industry was 12.84% in October. Weighted average of gross profit of processing and selling unit products was 528yuan/ton, of which, gross profits of processing and selling flour, japonica rice, indica rice, starch and ethyl alcohol processed from domestic corn respectively  509yuan/ton, 748yuan/ton, 594yuan/ton, 77yuan/ton and 407yuan/ton. By varieties, the processing profit rate of flour, japonica rice, indica rice, domestic corn starch and ethyl alcohol processed from domestic corn respectively was 15.48%, 16.42%, 14.99%, 3.63% and 8.35%. Considering basic management fee of 150yuan/ton for rice and flour processing, average logistics fee of 160-200 yuan/ton and relatively high financial cost of some large scale enterprises, the actual net profit of rice and flour processing will decrease sharply.

Synthesizing consumption, investment, output and industrial profit ratio, the monthly prosperity index was 9.10 in October, seeing some decline month on month.

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