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Analysis of monthly import situation of main grain varieties, January, 2016  

2016-03-21 08:19:41|  分类: 粮食安全 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Customs data show that the import volume of main cereals and cereal products saw great year-on-year decline in January. Reduction of cereals import volume and price problem caused by corn price adjustment decided the imports and exports of enterprises. It’s key for reasonable import of grain to change support way for grain production and realize market-oriented grain price.

According to the preliminary estimates, in January the total import volume of paddy and its flour was 1.84 million tons, the lowest level in past 14 months, decreasing by 23.97% year on year, The import volume of other raw grains excluding rice, wheat, corn, barley and flour was 938,000 tons in the same month, increasing 23.72% year on year, and kept a historical high level; among the imports of other cereal, the import volume of sorghum reached 924,000 tons, increasing by 26% year on year. China hasn’t quota restrictions sorghum import, global grain traders insanely exported sorghum to China in recent three years, which made international sorghum price higher than corn price.

In addition, China imported a large quantity of cassava and cassava starch from Southeast Asia, which also had obvious impact on grain industry. In January, the total import volume of dried cassava and cassava starch was 776,000 tons totally, decreasing by 7.29% year on year; of which, the import volume of dried cassava was 604,000 tons, decreasing by 9.35% from last year and the import volume of cassava starch was 172,000 tons, increasing by 0.79% from last year. The import volume of dried cassava (dried cassava and converted dried cassava from cassava starch) was 806,000 tons totally, decreasing by 7.01% from last year. Decline of corn price in domestic restricted the market demand for cassava.

As for export of main raw grains, the export volume of main grains including wheat, rice, corn, barley, etc. was 24,104 tons in January, increasing by 22.04% year on year; in the month, rice export still was in leading position with export volume of 22,216 tons, and the export volume of wheat and corn was zero, the export volume of barley was 5 tons.  

With regard to the import volume of main grains, the import volume of four grains was 898,900 tons, decreasing by 45.74% year on year. The import volume for wheat, paddy, corn and barley respectively was 241,400 tons, 287,200 tons, 7986 tons and 362,300 tons, separately increasing by 2.26 times, 1.35%, -98.62% and -58.87% year on year. The decrease of corn and barley import mainly was influenced by down regulation of corn purchasing price in domestic.

In addition, the monthly import volume of DDGS was 305,000 tons, increasing by 2.38 times year on year. Under the influence of GM corn problem in the same period last year, the import volume of DDGS was smaller, which led to sharp growth of current import volume of DDGS. Synthesizing imports of wheat, corn, rice, barley, sorghum, dried cassava, cassava starch and DDGS, the total import volume of grain was 2.904 million tons, decreasing by 12.46% from the same period last year. Though the import volume of grains declined this month, the import volume of grains and grain products still was higher. Continuous import in a large quantity will influence the consumption of state reserved feed grain and national finance burden.  

As from import price, the average CIF prices of wheat, corn, rice, barley, sorghum, dried cassava, cassava starch and DDGS respectively were USD247/MT, USD485/MT, USD384/MT, USD283/MT, USD251/MT, USD194/MT and USD229/MT; the converted prices including tax respectively were 1820 yuan/ton, 3569 yuan/ton, 2826 yuan/ton, 2084 yuan/ton, 1847 yuan/ton and 1388 yuan/ton. From the perspective of import prices including tax, the import price of corn is higher this month and hasn’t competitiveness in market; and the import prices of other products all are lower than the prices of domestic products, having obvious market competitiveness.

Grain products: the total export volume of flour, corn starch and modified starch was 21,221 tons, decreasing by 0.17% year on year; the total export volume of grain products converted into raw grain was about 32,648 tons. By varieties, the export volume of flour, corn starch and modified starch respectively was 6,119 tons, 11,094 tons and 4,009 tons, the former one and the last one respectively declined 40.87% and 46.84% year on year and the middle one increased by 2.29 times year on year. Domestic grain price is much higher than international grain price, which also restrains grain products export. Recently, the state increases support to deep processing enterprises, which promoted export of corn starch.

The total import volume of cereal products was 31,100 tons (converted into 47,800 tons raw grain), decreasing by 6.21% year on year. By varieties, the import volume of modified starch, flour and corn starch respectively was 28,000 tons, 2,840 tons and 175 tons, the former two decreased by 0.33% and 42.09% respectively and the last increased by 132.84%; Lower import price of raw grain restrained the import of finished products, the import volume of finished products was low relatively.

Synthesizing import and export of raw grain and grain products, China’s total export volume of main cereals and cereal products was 57,000 tons (converted into raw grains) in January, increasing by 8.20% year on year; In January the import volume (converted into raw grains) was 947,000 tons, decreasing by 44.56% year on year; Though the import of three major grains of private enterprises was restricted by quota, state-owned enterprises will increase import for profit, the reform of grain production support policy is extremely urgent. 

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