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Estimation and Prédiction of Globe Grain planting and safty ,Mar of 2016  

2016-03-23 08:10:02|  分类: 粮食安全 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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World cereal price declined continuously in February, 2016, it should be vigilant that excessive decline may influence production.

 Global cereal price reached the lowest level in past five years in 2015 and continuously slid down in January and February, 2016, excessive decline of price may have an influence on production in the new year; petroleum price and global macroeconomic situation led to decline of global cereal price and global price ratio between petroleum and cereal reached historical low level, which’s good for the reduction of world grain production cost, but the influence of petroleum price on cost is limited. Excessive decline of grain price has obvious influence on producers’ income, and will have an influence on overall macro economy, especially agricultural countries. Continuous decline of grain price will influence global grain production and world economy.

For Chinese government’s policy orientation of destocking, corn price dropped obviously, which has had serious influence on China’s economy.

1  Price Information:

BOABC’s monitoring shows that global grain price index was USD273/MT in February, 2016, the lowest level since October, 2009, decreasing by 0.85% from last month, seeing decline month on month for four months in succession, and declining by 12.66% year on year. Deducting the influence of USD value change during the same period, the price index dropped by 2.77% month on month and 9.88% year on year; global composite price of grain was USD274/MT in January and February, 2016, decreasing by 13.34% year on year; Deducting the influence of USD value change, the actual price declined by 8.63% year on year. Recently, obvious decline of actual price has obvious influence on farmers’ income expectation.

 

2  Production, Supply & Demand and Development Trend

Synthesizing monitoring in all aspects, global grain production was in a high level in 2015, grain production sure will see decline in 2016, but beans production will maintain growth continuously.

 

Global Cerael:

 

global planting area of Cerael was 772 million hectares in 2015, decreasing by 1.35% from last year; however petroleum price slid down, production cost declined, per unit area material and service input increased, all these factors brought about growth of per unit area yield which’s 3,643 kg/hectare; the total output of paddy was 2.812 billion tons ( Paddy is unhulled paddy), which can be converted into 2.579 billion tons CerealRice is hulled paddy; global output maintained above 2.8 billion tons for three successive years, continuous high yield and USD value made global grain price reaching the lowest level in past five years.

 

It’s estimated that global planting area will decrease further and reach 761 million hectares in 2016, declining by 1.35% from last year; global output will be 2.800 billion tons, decreasing by 0.40%, and can be converted into 2.565 billion tons Cereal; per unit area yield will be 3,678 kg/hectare, increasing by 0.40%. In the light of the development trend in past five years, global Cerael planting area may drop to 748 million hectares, and the output will reach 2.917 billion tons and can be converted into 2.917billion tons rice.

 

As for consumption, global population keeps increasing and is predicted to reach 7.387 billion in 2016, increasing by 1.19% from last year. Global population growth sure will bring about the increase of global food consumption. Industrial consumption of paddy is restrained under the influence of sharp decline of petroleum price, but rations and feed consumption will see growth to varying degrees, especially rations consumption will increase significantly. It’s predicted that global consumption was 2.695 billion tons in 2015/16 and greater than output, ending inventory started declining, global safety factor of paddy dropped to 23.1%. According to current trend, global paddy consumption will be 2.725 billion tons in 2016/17 and still larger than output, which will bring about further reduction of global ending inventory which will approach 461 million tons, the safety factory will be 16.9%. Considering the imbalance of regional distribution, some regions may appear food crisis, especially in some regions of Asia and Africa with unstable political and chaos caused by war, it’s more likely to happen food crisis. So, although global grain price is low relatively now, international organizations and countries should pay high attention to grain production and keep a lookout for possible food crisis.

 

Wheat Aspect

The supply of three main grains is sufficient, the production of coarse cereals declined seriously. As for main varieties, global sown area of wheat was 217 million hectares in 2015, the total output was 718 million tons, and per unit area yield was 3,309 kg/hectare.

From the view of price change, exchange rate change and farmers’ income, global planting area of wheat will drop to 213 million hectares in 2016, decreasing by 2.07%, and the total yield will be 711million tons. In the light of development trend in recent five years, global planting area of wheat will be 211 million hectares by 2020, the total yield will be 721 million tons.

In terms of consumption, per capita consumption of wheat as food rose up slightly and reached 68.9 kg in 2015/16, the overall per capita consumption was 99.3kg. The total consumption of wheat was 724 .63million tons in the crop year and passed the total output, which brought about the reduction of year-end inventory, the safety factor dropped to 32.8%, the lowest level since 2011/12. Under adverse influence of macro economy, annual price of wheat slid down continuously and obviously restrained production. 

According to current trend, ending inventory and safety factory in 2016/17 will decline continuously and obviously, which may bring about rebound of annual price in the new crop year. If the value of US dollar fluctuates significantly, the price of wheat will be affected obviously.

Corn aspect

Planting area and output both dropped obviously in 2015. Output growth in China and Europe can make up the reduction of output in other regions. Global planting area was 171 million hectares and output was 973 million tons in 2015, decreasing by 2.93% and 2.65% from last year respectively; high output in 2013 and 2014 pushed global price down and made price and output of corn both declined in 2015. Corn production slides down further in 2016, the planting area drops to 167 million hectares and output reaches 969million tons.

As for consumption, corn/grain ratio declined year on year, which promoted consumption substitution of global corn for rice rations; the prices of other coarse cereals dropped more obviously, corn was replaced by coarse cereals in feed and deep processing aspects, especially sorghum and barley. However, de-stocking of corn in China brought about growth of deep processing consumption of corn in domestic and the world; at the same time, wheat has less substitution effect for corn.  The consumption of corn for rations was 134 million tons, corn consumption for feed was 535 million tons, and total consumption of corn was 975 million tons which passed global total output, global safety factor declined.

Global output will be lower than consumption in 2016/17, and ending inventory will decline. According to current development trend, global corn safety factor will keep low by 2020, but it’s better than the safety situation of wheat and coarse cereals.

 

Paddy & Rice Aspect

 

The sown area was 166 million hectares in 2015, decreasing by 1.35% annually; total output of paddy was 7297million tons, which can be converted into 494 million tons rice, decreasing by 1.49% from last year; per unit area yield was 4,414 kg/hectare.

Global planting area of paddy declines to some extent in 2016, but the decrease range is much lower than that of wheat and corn, it’s predicted that the planting area of paddy will be 164 million hectares, decreasing by 0.31% from last year; per unit area yield increases. In the light of the development trend in past five years, per unit area yield is predicted to be 4,473 kg/hectare, the total output will be 734 million tons which can be converted into 499 million tons rice.

As for consumption, per capita rice consumption was 69.3 kg worldwide in 2015/16, sliding down from last year, but the total consumption increased continuously. Global output was lower than the consumption in the same year, which led to decline of ending inventory and safety factor to varying degrees. Global macro economy pushed paddy and rice price down.

Soybean Aspect

China’s import volume increased sharply, which drove the production of exporting countries in America. At the same time, currency devaluation and price rise in the South American countries had obvious driving effect on the production in the locality. Global soybean production increased continuously and the planting area reached 121 million hectares and the output of soybean was 320 million tons, respectively increasing by 1.99% and 2.21%, soybean became world’s fourth largest grain crop.

From the view of soybean production in 2016, the decrease range of soybean price in American producing regions is much lower than that of grains, especially coarse cereals. For income difference, coarse cereals planting is replaced by beans planting, beans production continues increasing. It’s predicted that global planting area of soybean will be 123 million hectares and soybean output will be 325 million tons in 2016, increasing by 1.81% and 1.60% from last year respectively. In the light of the development trend in recent five years, global planting area of soybean will reach 134 million hectares and soybean output will be 355 million tons by 2020. High marketization globally and China’s huge import demand bring about continuous and fast growth of soybean productivity, soybean becomes the crop that sees fastest output growth.

As for consumption, in feed consumption, more protein feed replaced energy consumption, so processing consumption and food consumption of soybean increased to some extent, per capita consumption of soybean reached 41.44 kg, increasing by 4.22% from last year; consumption growth has obvious driving effect on global production. Global consumption was 303 million tons, the output was bigger than consumption, ending inventory and safety factor moved up obviously from last year and annual price slid down continuously in 2015.  Soybean output, consumption, ending inventory and safety factor all will increase in 2016/17, price continues rising, scale production in America brings about sharp improvement of productivity.

 

Barley Aspect

 planting area and output both increased obviously in 2015. China’s huge import brought about the growth of production in exporting countries, the increase of output in Europe, Australia and America passed the reduction of output in other regions. Global planting area was 48.462 million hectares and the output was 138 million tons, respectively increasing by 3.51% and 2.23% from last year.

Barley production will decline obviously in 2016, and the total planting area will drop to 4.610 million hectares worldwide, decreasing by 4.54% from last year. The decrease range is much lower than that of three main grain crops. In the light of the development trend in past five years, global planting area of barley will be 52.256 million hectares and output will reach 159 million tons by 2020, the production basically is balance with sales

As for consumption, China imported a large quantity of barley for feed, which promoted the consumption of barley as feed, and per capita barley consumption increased slightly. The total consumption was 140 million tons in 2015/16 and larger than output, which led to decline of ending inventory and safety factor; annual average price declined obviously.

More  Information ,please Subscribe for & Refer to 《China  Grain  Weekly Report》
E-mail:mwflg931@163.com

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