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独立经济研究者,东方艾格农业、食品分析师,新华社特约经济分析师。农民出身,从事粮食加工技术、粮食棉花的行业、世界经济、公司战略研究,尤其关注中国粮食安全、宏观经济和国际食品企业的研究。 每日接受来自世界各地媒体关于粮食、棉花、物价、宏观经济的等以民生内容的采访。 现利用网络窗口便利同大家进行交流。

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BOABC’s Prediction on China’s Grain Production, February, 2016  

2016-03-31 17:21:33|  分类: 粮食生产 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Synthesizing information of all aspects, national sown area of grain was 113.3 million hectares in 2015, increasing by 0.55% from last year; the sown area of grain accounted for 68.2% of that of all crops; it’s predicted that grain output reached 621.4 million tons, increasing by 2.37% from last year, and realizing growth for 13 successive years.

It’s predicted that the sown area of grain crops will be 112.50 million hectares, declining by 0.74% from last year; annual grain crops output will reach 620 million tons, decreasing by 0.13% from last year; per unit area yield is hopeful to reach 5,515 kg/hectare, increasing by 0.62%.

According to the variation trend of per unit area yield and sown area in past five years, the total sown area of grain crops will reach 114 million hectares and output will reach 657 million tons by 2020.

In terms of grain crops classification, the sown area and output of cereal respectively were 95.553 million hectares and 573 million tons in 2015, increasing by 0.97% and 2.84% from last year respectively; the sown area and output of beans respectively were 9.144 million hectares and 16.144 million tons, decreasing by 0.38% and 0.68% from last year separately; the sown area and output of tuber crops respectively were 8.643 million hectares and 31.955 million tons, decreasing by 3.33% and 4.22% from last year separately.

It’s predicted that the sown area and output of cereal respectively will reach 94.145 million hectares and 570 million tons in 2016, decreasing by 1.47% and 0.47% from 2015 respectively; the sown area and output of beans respectively will be 9.317 million hectares and 16.329 million tons, increasing by 1.89% and 1.15% from 2015 separately; the sown area and output of tuber crops respectively will be 9.038 million hectares and 33.677 million tons, increasing by 4.57% and 5.39% respectively.

In the long run, the sown area of grains in domestic will be 113.6 million hectares and the total output will reach 645 million tons by 2020. If per unit area yield reaches the level of global advanced countries and regions in 2015, the total output of grain crops can reach 810 million tons; considering the output of tuber crops and other coarse cereals, China’s total grain output will be above 850 million tons, not only can meet domestic demand, but also can export about 100 million tons. 


more detail information,please check  《Weekly Grain Report 》 

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