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独立经济研究者,东方艾格农业、食品分析师,新华社特约经济分析师。农民出身,从事粮食加工技术、粮食棉花的行业、世界经济、公司战略研究,尤其关注中国粮食安全、宏观经济和国际食品企业的研究。 每日接受来自世界各地媒体关于粮食、棉花、物价、宏观经济的等以民生内容的采访。 现利用网络窗口便利同大家进行交流。

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Monitoring and Analysis of China’s Agricultural Products Trade, February, 2016  

2016-04-12 14:15:50|  分类: 农业 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Customs statistics show that China’s import and export value of farm produce both declined year on year and month on month. Monthly deficit also slid down year on year and month on month; the accumulative value also saw obvious decrease.

1)    General import and export situation of agricultural products: China’s total import value of agricultural products was 6.09 billion dollars in February, decreasing by 12.1% year on year, it accounted for 6.51% of total domestic import value in the same month, decreasing somewhat from last month, but still was in a historical high level and was obviously higher than the 5.9% of minerals, ranked second only after the 10.68% of petroleum and its products. The total export value of farm produce was 4.23 billion dollars, decreasing by 14.3% year on year; it accounted for 3.4% of domestic total export value in the same month, the proportion basically was the same as last month. Trade deficit of agricultural products was 1.86 billion yuan, decreasing by 6.75% from last year.

2)    Grain import aspect, the total import value of grains including cereals, tuber crops and beans was 2.18 billion dollars, decreasing by 25.3% year on year, accounting for 35.8% of total import value of agricultural products; the total import volume of grains was 6.47 million tons, decreasing by 15.3% year on year, the lowest level since May, 2013. Monthly import price of grains was USD337/MT, decreasing by 11.8% year on year.

Grain import analysis by varieties, the import volume of cereal and its powder, soybean and other grains respectively was 1.18 million tons, 4.51 million tons and 780,000 tons in February, decreasing by 49.79%, -5.9% and 24.3% year on year separately; the state lowered corn price, which made feed grain greatly restrained grain import. But sharp decline of domestic oil plants production led to import increase of soybean.

The import value of cereal and its powder, soybean and other grains respectively 317 million dollars, 1.711 billion dollars and 150 million dollars, decreasing by 53.26%, 13.9% and 40.3% separately; sharp decline of international grain price and total import volume led to sharp decrease of import value.

As for price, the average price of cereal and its powder was USDA268/MT, decreasing by 6.92% year on year, and was the lowest level from October, 2010; the price of soybean was USD379/MT, decreasing 18.71%, and was the lowest level tracked by me since 2008. Depreciation of South American currency and continuous growth of world soybean output brought about continuous decline of soybean price, and the decrease range of import price in dollar was lower than the price decline in American producing area, which led to sharp decrease of global grain trade profit. Monthly import price of other grains was USD192/MT, decreasing by 20.31% year on year, and was the lowest level since May, 2015. The import volume, import value and import price of dry cassava respectively were 721,000 tons, 130 million dollars and USD181/MT, decreasing by 28.31%, 9.35% and 20.91% year on year; the import price of dry cassava was the lowest level monitored by me since 2010.

Export aspect, China’s export volume and export value of grain in February respectively were 90,000 tons and 90.103 million dollars, decreasing by 20.00% and 18.19% year on year separately; average export price was USD1001/MT, increasing by 2.27% year on year. And the export volume of soybean was about 50,000 tons, ranking the first, valuing 56.293 million dollars, and the export price was USD1126/MT. Grain export volume was much lower than import volume, which shows that China’s competitiveness of grain in global market is in a relatively low level. Renminbi continuously appreciated since 2012, especially in recent two years, Renminbi went up sharply following US dollar, which led to sharp drop of China’s grain international competitiveness.

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