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China’s food prosperity index was 8.12% in May  

2016-07-18 16:02:46|  分类: 食品行业研究 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Synthesizing consumption, production, investment, imports and total profits of food industry, BOABC predicts China’s prosperity index of food industry was 8.12% in May, the overall situation of the industry was relatively worse.

1 Consumption condition: the monthly retail value of catering industry of whole society was 287.8 billion yuan in May, increased by 10.9% year on year and accounted for 10.82% of total consumption of whole society, the growth rate and proportion both rose somewhat.

The retail turnover of food commodities of enterprises above designated size was 157 billion yuan and increased by 10.8% year on year, accounting for 14.06% of total retail value of all enterprises above designated size. Synthesizing catering and food retail of enterprises above designated size, the total food consumption was4 44.8 billion yuan in May, increasing by 10.87% year on year, accounting for 16.71% of total consumption of whole society, the proportion increased slightly from last year.

Deducting the influence of price factor, social consumption increased 7.84% in May, in historical low level. The slowdown of social consumption restrained growth rate of overall economy. The actual consumption of catering industry increased by 4.72%, retail volume of grain and oil products increased 10.41%, food consumption totally increased by 4.69%. In June, growth rate of food consumption deducting price influence was in historical low level, restraining food industry.

As for major enterprises, the consumption value of catering enterprises above designated size was 72 billion yuan in May and increased by 5.3% year on year, accounted for 25.02% of total catering consumption of the whole society, the proportion declined by 1.8% from the same period last year.

As for segments of food industry, the consumption value of grain & oil products, beverage and liquor & tobacco respectively was 110.7 billion yuan, 16.3 billion yuan and 30.0 billion yuan, increasing by 11.7%, 10.1% and 9.6% year on year respectively; according to historical data, they respectively increased by 12.0%,7.2% and 8.3%. It should be noted that the consumption value of drugs and cosmetics respectively was 66.7 billion yuan and 17.2 billion yuan, increasing 14.4% and 6.0% year on year. According to historical data, they respectively increased 9.3% and 7.5%. Total consumption value and growth rate of cosmetics both were higher than that of beverage, which should be paid much attention to by investors.

According to the Ministry of Commerce’s monitoring data on key commercial enterprises, retail consumption of food commodities increased by 9.6%, beverage retail increased by 8.8%, and liquor & tobacco retail together increased by 11.7%. Deducting the influence of price, the growth rate of food, beverage and liquor & tobacco respectively was 4.68%, 7.50% and 10.30%. Sales of food commodities of large scale enterprises declined sharply, which obviously influenced their management concept.

Among all online consumption, food consumption increased 36.50%. Fast growth of online consumption obviously impacted traditional commercial channels. Operators should pay attention to modern business channels and ensure that its total market share will not decrease for the upgrading of modern technology.

Synthesizing sales growth rate of whole society consumption and key commercial enterprises, the actual consumption growth of national food industry was 2.67% in May, in historical low level, food consumption growth went back to relative true level. 

2 Supply side, domestic output: In May, the nominal growth of agricultural and sideline products manufacturing, food manufacturing industry and beverage respectively was 6.5%, 8.7% and 5.4%, respectively increasing 0.9%, 2.2% and 2.8% from that last year.

Deducting the influence of factory price, the growth rate of actual output of agricultural and sideline products manufacturing, food manufacturing industry and beverage respectively was 6.82%, 9.25% and 6.14%, the growth rate of comprehensive output of food industry was 7.4%, increasing slightly from last year, but still in a relative low level. 

In import aspect, total import value of vegetable oil, edible animal products, liquor and rice & flour products was 2.537 billion dollars, increasing 30.8% year on year. Converted Renminbi, the import value was 16.4 billion yuan, increasing 38.16% year on year, accounting for 10.76 of total consumption of domestic catering enterprises above designated size and food retail terminal.

By varieties, the import value of vegetable oil, edible animal products, liquor and rice & flour products respectively was 234 million dollars, 1.775 billion dollars, 462 million dollars and 66.91 million dollars, increasing by -34.01%, 41.36%, 67.87% and 21.27% year on year separately.

Calculated at a price mark-up ratio of 50% in middle link, the converted terminal consumption value of various imported foods was 24.64 billion yuan, accounting for 10.76% of the total consumption of catering and food enterprises above designated size and 5.54% of total food and catering consumption value of the whole society. Imported food seriously impacted the production and operation of domestic large scale food and catering enterprises.

3 Investment condition: in May, the investment in agricultural and sideline products, food manufacturing, beverage and accommodation & catering respectively was 108.44 billion yuan, 55.305 billion yuan, 36.91 billion yuan and 51.366 billion yuan, increasing by 6.55%, 14.23%, -6.50% and -12.56% year on year respectively. The total investment in these five industries was 252.0 billion yuan, increasing by 1.4% year on year, accounting for 4.6% of total investment of whole society.

Deducting the influence of price rise, monthly investment of the whole society actually increased 10.2%. By segments, the actual investment in agricultural and sideline products, food manufacturing, beverage and accommodation & catering respectively increased by 9.35%, 17.03%, -3.7% and -9.8%, and the comprehensive growth rate was 4.2%. Recently, investment in food industry goes back to lower level, restraining the rise of prosperity.

4 From the perspective of industry profitability

As for grain processing link, in May, the aggregate price index of raw grain was 2317yuan/ton, the wholesale price of processed grain was 3635yuan/ton, the price differences rate was 56.91%. Synthesizing the prices of rice, flour, starch and alcohol and corresponding raw grain prices and corresponding processing cost, the gross profit margin of grain processing industry was 13.55% in May. The weighted average gross profit of processing and selling per unit product was 514yuan/ton this month, of which, the gross profit of flour, japonica rice, indica rice, starch and ethyl alcohol produced from domestic corn was 486yuan/ton, 789yuan/ton, 571yuan/ton, 100yuan/ton and 108yuan/ton respectively. By varieties, the processing profit rate of flour, japonica rice, indica rice , domestic corn starch and ethyl alcohol processed from domestic corn respectively was 14.98%, 17.32%, 14.44%, 4.44% and 2.25%.

As for corn imports, calculated on dutiable price of corn, the average dutiable cost of imported corn was 1420yuan/ton in April, according to which, the profits of processing starch and alcohol with imported corn respectively were 377yuan/ton and 1136yuan/ton in April, the profit ratio of sales respectively was 16.80% and 23.62%. Huge processing profit of imported corn obviously attracts deep processing enterprises and induces them to import corn.

As for circulation link, according to the wholesale price, retail price and circulation cost based on fuel energy motility index, the gross profit of flour circulation was 27.99% as a whole, of which, the gross circulation rate of small package flour was 30.19%. The total profit of flour circulation was 1538yuan/ton, of which, the profit for wholesale link, second-level wholesalers and retail link respectively was 154yuan/ton, 385yuan/ton and 1000 yuan/ton. The total profit of small package flour was 1742 yuan/ton. Gross circulation profits of rice and small package japonica rice respectively were 22.43% and 24.85%. As for distribution of profits, total circulation profit of rice was 1408yuan/ton, of which, the profit for first-level wholesalers, second-level wholesalers and retail link respectively was 141yuan/ton, 493yuan/ton and 775yuan/ton. The total profit of small package japonica rice was 1622yuan/ton.

Synthesizing consumption, investment, output and industry profit margin, the monthly prosperity index of these four indicators was 8.12, slightly increasing compared with that last month and in a historical lower level.

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