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Forecast and outlook of China grain production (BOABC) (May, 2016)  

2016-07-04 10:54:12|  分类: 粮食生产 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Sharp decline of grain prices will lead to production reduction in the new year. Grain production in our country develops slowly relatively in a longer period. According to current trend, we can’t realize current level of global advanced countries in 5-10 years, so it’s a long-term and constant historical task to improve agricultural productivity. 

Continuous rise of international oil prices will have an influence on production and circulation cost, at the same time, La Nina phenomenon is forming now, which also will have some adverse influence on grain production, we should pay close attention to domestic grain production.

One grain and fertilizer prices

1 Composite index of raw grain was 2317yuan/ton in May, the lowest level since June, 2011, decreasing 0.65% month on month and 12.38% year on year. Month-on-month prices have dropped for 12 successive months, about 13.10% accumulatively; year-on-year prices declined for 11 successive months with average decrease range of 7.38%. Deducting the influence of monetary value change, the actual price index dropped 1.30% month-on-month and 19.85% year on year, the biggest year-on-year decline historically.

2 As for fertilizers, prices of main fertilizers saw year on year and month on month decline in May. The average price of urea, potassium chloride and NPK decreased 6.12% in May, of which, the prices of urea, potassium chloride and NPK respectively dropped by 12.34%, 3.56% and 6.56%; from September 2015 to May 2016, the average prices of them declined 2.04% year on year, the prices of urea, potassium chloride respectively decreased 5.42% and 0.87%, while the prices of NPK increased 0.17%. The year –on-year decrease range of fertilizer prices is much lower than that of grain prices, which has obvious adverse influence on the income expectation of grain in 2016 and is bad for grain production.

Two grain production: sustainable growth for 13 years has ended, grain production enters fluctuation period.

1 General situation: grain production slides down in 2016. It’s predicted that the sown area of crops will be 164.6 million hectares in China in 2016, decreasing 1.02% from last year; of which, sown area of grain crops is 112.87 million hectares, down by 0.42% from last year, about 68.5% of total sown area; according to historical output development trend, annual output of grain crops is predicted to be 617.2 million tons, declining by 0.68% from last year; unit yield may be 5468kg/hectare, declining by 0.26% under the influence of adverse weather, sharp decline of nominal and actual prices and agricultural structure adjustment. 

In light of the variation trend of unit yield and area in past five years, by 2020 the sown area of crops is hopeful to reach 165.7 million hectares and multiple crop index will reach 122.9% in China; total area of grain crops will be 114.1 million hectares; grain output will reach 635 million tons. Sown area of grain will be 115 million hectares with output of 657 million tons in 2030.

2 As for grain crops by varieties, large imports of bean, cereal and potato increase supply in domestic, their prices fall down obviously. Potato isn’t easy to store, production reduction makes domestic consumption prices up greatly.

It’s predicted that cereal area will be 94.267 million hectares, down by 1.35%; output will be 567 million tons, declining by 1.15% from last year; sown area and output of beans respectively will be 9.533 million hectares and 16.724 million tons, respectively increasing 3.59% and 4.25% from last year; sown area and output of potato respectively will be 9.07 million hectares and 33.774 million tons, increasing 4.94% and 5.69% separately.

In the long run, domestic sown area of grains will be 113.4 million hectares, realizing total output of 636.6 million tons by 2020. If unit yield of main grain crops reaches the average unit yield of world advanced countries and regions in 2015, the total output of these grain crops will reach 850 million tons, which not only can meet domestic demand but also have about 100 million tons for export.

3 By varieties

1)Wheat aspect: in 2016, annual sown area of wheat is 24.149 million hectares, decreasing 0.01%; wheat output reaches 128 million tons, decreasing 1.41%; per unit area yield is 5276kg/hectare, decreasing 1.41% from last year; of which, the sown area of winter wheat is 22.669 million hectares, declining by 0.01% from last year; the output of winter wheat is hopeful to reach 121.4 million tons, decreasing 1.49%; at the same time, adverse weather condition aggravates the influence of wheat disease in the South, the output of imperfect wheat will be above 4.5 million tons. Supply of wheat meeting the requirements of making flour will be about 6.5 million tons. Sown area of spring wheat basically keeps stable and is 1.526 million hectares, up by 0.06%; total output of spring wheat will be 6.264 million tons;

According to historical development trend of wheat production, total sown area and output of wheat in domestic will reach 24.77 million hectares and 135 million tons, if unit yield reaches the average unit level of France, Germany and UK in 2015, China’s wheat output will reach 206 million tons. By 2025, China’s sown area, output and per unit area yield of wheat respectively will reach 25.59 million hectares, 144.9 million tons and 5663kg/hectare which has a big gap with world advanced level 8331kg/hectare.

2)Corn aspect: it’s predicted that the sown area and total output of corn respectively will reach 36.62 million hectares and 221 million tons, respectively decreasing 3.01% and 1.68% from last year, and unit yield is 6047kg/hectare, increasing 1.37%; as for spring corn, the sown area and output respectively will be 24.971 million hectares and 153 million tons, decreasing 3.14% and 1.60% from last year separately; unit yield will be 6112kg/hectare, increasing 1.59% from last year, the growth of per unit area yield restrains excessive decline of total output. With regard to summer corn, the sown area, output and per unit area yield respectively will be 11.649 million hectares, 68.82 million tons and 5907kg/hectare, declining by 2.70%, 1.84% and 0.88% from last year separately. 

In light of historical development trend, sown area, total output and per unit area yield of corn in domestic will reach 35.693 million hectares, 226 million tons and 6319kg/hectare by 2020. If reaching the average unit yield of France, Germany, Spain and Turkey in 2015, domestic corn output will be 305 million tons. By 2025, sown area, total output and per unit area yield of corn in domestic respectively will be 33.884 million hectares, 226.6 million tons and 6689kg/hectare which has a great gap with current international advanced level of 8556kg/hectare.

3)Paddy aspect: supported by national policy, paddy production is stable relatively, it’s predicted total area of paddy is about 30.229 million hectares, decreasing 0.43% from last year; output will be 208 million tons, basically the same as last year.

By seasons, the sown area and output of early indica rice are 5.614 million hectares and 32.582 million tons, decreasing 1.78% and 3.29% respectively, extreme weather is good for the growth of unit yield. Sown area and output of single-season rice respectively are 18.379 million hectares and 137.6 million tons, increasing 0.49% and 1.45% from last year separately; sown area and output of double-cropping late rice respectively are 6.236 million hectares and 38.306 million tons, decreasing 1.86% and 0.70% separately.

By varieties, sown area and output of japonica rice respectively are 1.0182 million hectares and 76.818 million tons, increasing 0.87% and 2.00% separately; sown area and output of indica rice respectively are 20.047 million hectares and 131.65 million tons, decreasing 1.08% and 0.70% separately.

According to the development trend of grain, the sown area and output of paddy will reach 30.292 million hectares and 209 million tons in China by 2020. If our unit yield reaches the average unit yield level 8530kg/hectare of the US, Canada, Egypt, Italy and Turkey, domestic paddy output will reach 258 million tons. By 2025, sown area, total output and per unit area yield of paddy in domestic respectively will be 30.611 million hectares, 212 million tons and 6929kg/hectare which has a great gap with world advanced level.

Synthesizing wheat, corn and paddy three staple food grains, if reaching world advanced level, the output of three staple food grains is hopeful to reach 770 million tons in our country, much higher than the yield level of 570 million tons according to past our development speed.

4) Coarse cereals production, the sown area and output are predicted to reach 3.263 million hectares and 9.175 million tons respectively, increasing 6.46% and 8.16% from last year separately. But impacted by sharp decline of import prices, sown area and output of barley continue drop greatly.

5) Barley aspect: sown area of barley declined in winter of 2015 and spring of 2016 in northeastern region. It’s predicted that sown area, output and unit yield of barley will be 424,600 hectares, 1.704 million tons and 4013kg/hectare, increasing -6.16%, -7.33% and 1.26%, the output hit record low in recent years. Large imports of low price international barley have obvious inhibitory effect on domestic production.

According to current development trend, the sown area and output of barley will be 331,000 mu and 1.445 million tons in China by 2020, sharp reduction of sown area is bad for the sound development of the industry. The average unit yield of France, Germany and Italy was 6972kg/hectare in 2015, if calculated on it our barley yield will reach 2.306 million tons by 2020. By 2025, sown area and per unit area yield of barley in domestic respectively will be 284,000 hectares and 5339kg/hectare, having a great gap with world advanced level.

6) Soybean aspect: the sown area, unit yield and total output of soybean respectively will be 6.415 million hectares, 1784 kg/hectare and 11.537 million tons in our country in 2016, respectively increasing 4.17%, 1.04% and 5.25% from last year.

According to the development trend of historical soybean output, the sown area, unit yield and total output of soybean in our country respectively will be 6.555 million hectares, 1845kg/hectare and 12.094 million tons by 2020, planting structure adjustment of the MOA is hard to be realized. Calculated on the unit yield 2867kg/hectare of the US, Brazil, Argentina, Italy and Canada in 2015, China’s total output of soybean will reach 17.786 million tons. By 2025, sown area, total output and per unit area yield of soybean in domestic respectively will be 6.679 million hectares, 12.533 million tons and 1876kg/hectare, having a great gap with international advanced level.

7) Potato aspect: it’s predicted that sown area, total output and unit yield of potato respectively will be 5.639 million hectares, 19.844 million tons and 3519kg/hectare in 2016, increasing 5.47%, 7.97% and 2.37% from last year separately.

According to current development trend, total sown area and output of potato in China will reach 6.27 million hectares and 25.166 million tons by 2020. By 2025, the sown area, per unit area yield and total output respectively will reach 7.162 million hectares, 6024kg/hectare and 43.145 million tons. If reaching the unit yield level of developed regions, China’s total output of potato converted into food or will be above 50 million tons.  


Date :《china grains》of  Mawenfneg

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