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Canadian grain and oilseed ending stocks for 2016/17 are forecast to be much larger  

2016-09-29 08:59:49|  分类: 农业 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Canadian grain and oilseed ending stocks for 2016/17 are forecast to be much larger than earlier expectations, according to the latest monthly supply/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's market analysis division, released September 28. The new estimates account for the updated Statistics Canada production estimates released September 20 and an old-crop ending stocks report on September 7.

Total ending stocks for the major grains and oilseeds are expected to total 12.485 million tonnes by the end of the 2016/17 crop
year, up by three million tonnes from the previous estimate. The largest revisions were in wheat and canola.
Carryout for the current 2015/16 crop year was also revised higher, to 12.945 million, from 9.945 million on September 1.
The eight major grains and oilseeds include: canola, flaxseed,soybeans, wheat, oats, barley, corn and rye.
Total production of the eight major grains and oilseeds for 2016/17 was forecast at 81.932 million tonnes, which was up from
the previous estimate of 78.485 million and the 78.741 million tonnes grown in 2015/16.
Total exports were forecast at 41.859 million tonnes for 2016/17, up by 1.5 million tonnes from the September 1 estimate. Exports for 2015/16 were pegged at 42.725 million tonnes.
Total domestic usage of the various grains and oilseeds for the 2016/17 crop year was forecast at 41.572 million tonnes, which
would be up from the 40.286 million tonnes forecast at the beginning of the month. Total domestic usage in 2015/16 was
forecast at 41.572 million tonnes.
September estimates for Canadian 2016/17 and 2015/16, grain and
oilseed supply and demand. Domestic usage numbers include food and
industrial use as well as feed, waste, and dockage. In million
metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
         ----Production----           ----Exports----
        2016/17 2016/17 2015/16   2016/17 2016/17 2015/16
         Sep 28  Sep 01            Sep 28  Sep 01
All Wht  31.531  30.487  27.594    22.000  21.200  21.726
Durum     7.312   6.807   5.389     5.200   5.200   4.541
Barley    8.563   8.704   8.226     2.050   2.100   2.014
Corn     13.170  12.349  13.559     1.200   1.000   1.600
Oats      2.976   3.018   3.428     2.300   2.375   2.228
Canola   18.384  17.024  18.377     9.500   9.000  10.245
Flaxseed  0.577   0.576   0.942     0.600   0.600   0.615
Soybeans  6.229   5.827   6.235     4.200   3.900   4.200
Total    81.932  78.485  78.741    41.859  40.369  42.725
        ----Domestic Usage----      ----Ending Stocks----
        2016/17 2016/17 2015/16   2016/17 2016/17 2015/16
         Sep 28  Sep 01            Sep 28  Sep 01
All Wht   9.088   8.882   7.850     5.700   4.700   5.167
Durum     0.914   0.912   0.725     2.200   1.700   1.092
Barley    6.356   6.404   6.120     1.700   1.700   1.443
Corn     13.470  13.399  13.011     1.700   1.300   1.800
Oats      0.924   0.987   0.960     0.700   0.475   0.930
Canola    9.000   8.109   8.759     2.000   0.965   2.016
Flaxseed  0.060   0.062   0.162     0.200   0.400   0.274
Soybeans  2.439   2.177   2.429     0.375   0.335   0.335
Total    41.572  40.286  39.565    12.485   9.955  12.015
Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

Copyright 2016 Commodity News Service Canada, Inc.
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