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独立经济研究者,东方艾格农业、食品分析师,新华社特约经济分析师。农民出身,从事粮食加工技术、粮食棉花的行业、世界经济、公司战略研究,尤其关注中国粮食安全、宏观经济和国际食品企业的研究。 每日接受来自世界各地媒体关于粮食、棉花、物价、宏观经济的等以民生内容的采访。 现利用网络窗口便利同大家进行交流。

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Monthly analysis of China grain safety, September, 2016  

2016-10-11 13:56:22|  分类: 粮食安全 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Output and import volume both decline in 2016/17, new added supply is lower than consumption, ending inventory and safety factor slide down

BOABC predicts that domestic grain consumption will be 645 million tons from May, 2016 to April, 2017, increasing 3.40% year on year. Of that, grain ration consumption, feed grain consumption and industrial consumption respectively will be 315 million tons, 188 million tons and 103 million tons, separately increasing 1.81%, 2.59% and 8.95% from the year before, industrial consumption will break through 100 million tons for the first time. In grain ration consumption aspect, rural household consumption, urban household consumption and eating-out consumption respectively will be 91.59 million tons, 85.19 million tons and 138 million tons, respectively increasing-4.94%, 2.17% and 6.60% from the year before. In industrial consumption, deep processing consumption and brewing consumption respectively will be 49.55 million tons and 53.61 million tons.

In supply aspect, total supply is predicted to be 995 million tons in 2016/17, increasing 1.65% year on year. Of that, imports will be 34.53 million tons (excluding soybean), decreasing about 15% from the year before, output will be 605 million tons, decreasing 2.61%. Crop year end inventory will be 349 million tons, decreasing 1.65% from the year before. Safety factor will be 54.14%, declining 2.78% from the year before. Ending inventory and safety factor both decline in 2016/17, which will support grain price in the first half of 2017. At the same time, considering the influence of currency depreciation later, raw grain index and processed grain index will rise to some extent.

It’s predicted that annual raw grain price and processed grain price respectively will be 2591yuan/ton and 3912yuan/ton, respectively increasing 4.00% and 5.5% from the year before. In particular months of 2017, the prices may grow sharply and year-on-year growth rate may pass 10%.

As for monthly consumption, domestic grain consumption was 52.77 million tons in July, of which, grain ration consumption, industrial consumption and feed consumption respectively were 25.624 million tons, 9.525 million tons and 15.39 million tons. Month-end inventory was 425 million tons, month-end inventory factor was 8.04. Harvest yield was 170 million tons from May to July, which brought about the rise of domestic grain inventory, but the harvest yield saw a year-on-year decline of 1.26%.

Month-end grain inventory structure: by varieties, month-end inventory of paddy, corn, wheat, barley and other grains respectively was 94.002 million tons, 116 million tons, 159 million tons, 4.505 million tons and 50.954 million tons. The inventory of three main grain crops was 369 million tons, of which, state-owned inventory, farmers’ inventory and commercial inventory respectively were 246 million tons, 94.89 million tons and 27.84 million tons, separately accounting for 67.5%, 25.71% and 7.54%. 53.43% grains of farmers have been sold. 
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