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Wheat output decrease and feed consumption rises up in 2016/17.  

2016-10-11 14:01:20|  分类: 粮食安全 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Under the influence of adverse weather condition, output declines from May, 2016 to April 2017, new added supply is less than domestic demand, which brings about the decline of ending inventory and safety factor and supports price rise.

Total supply will be 194 million tons in 2016/17, of which, domestic output, import volume and annual surplus respectively will be 128 million tons, 1.455 million tons and 66.434 million tons. Domestic wheat consumption is 129 million tons totally, of which, consumption for making power, feed consumption, industrial consumption, seed consumption and loss respectively are 111 million tons, 7.108 million tons, 1.35 million tons, 5.68 million tons and 4.22 million tons. In the process of making power, the output of powder and by product respectively is 81.779 million tons and 28.73 million tons.

Inventory is 66.52 million tons at the end of crop year, safety factor is 51.6%. Ending inventory increases, safety factor slides down, which supports market, especially the output of high-end wheat drops sharply in that year. Annual price of wheat is 2455yuan/ton, rising up about 3% from the year before. Annual price of flour is 3444yuan/ton in crop year, increasing 5% year on year. Inflation brings about the rise of flour price.

Monthly condition: total consumption was 10.22 million tons in July, of which, 9.16 million tons were used for making flour, the output of flour and by product respectively was 6.781 million tons and 2.383 million tons. In supply aspect, monthly harvest yield was 6.825 billion tons, accumulative harvest was 121 million tons, month-end inventory was 159 million tons, and month-end inventory coefficient was 15.6. The price was 2324yuan/ton and declined to some extent because a large quantity of new wheat appeared on the market.

As for wheat inventory structure, state-owned inventory is 77.23 million tons, accounting for 48.59% of total inventory. With regard to temporary storage, balance available from previous year is 37.51 million tons and new purchased wheat is 57.31 million tons. And for state storage, balance available from previous year is 10.846 million tons and new purchased wheat is 9.07 million tons. In July, the state discharged 3.82 million tons wheat from the warehouse, and the total purchase volume was 28.87 million tons. Flour enterprises and traders basically maintained normal level, farmers’ inventory was 67.18 million tons and 44.51% wheat of farmers have been sold. The state accelerated purchase, which made the sales process of farmers sped.

In July, the operation rate of domestic flour enterprises was 44.1%, the operation rate of large scale enterprises was about 48%, while for small scale enterprises it only was 9.1%, in a low level. Total consumption of flour in domestic was 6.773 million tons, of which, food consumption, household consumption, catering consumption and food industrial consumption respectively were 6.451 million tons, 2.82 million tons, 2.175 million tons and 1.457 million tons. In household consumption, the consumption of urban households and rural households respectively was 679,000 tons and 2.139 million tons. Month-end inventory was 703,000 tons, sales-output ratio of flour was 100% in that month.

Accumulative food consumption was 44.446 million tons from January to July, 2016, of which, household consumption, catering consumption and food industrial consumption respectively were 18.521 million tons, 13.443 million tons and 10.424 million tons. Domestic consumption was 44.497 million tons totally. 
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