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Global grain price analysis and supply & demand outlook:output declines, price will rebounds  

2016-10-17 14:50:24|  分类: 粮食安全 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Global cereal prices dropped slightly for three successive months from July to September, 2016, cereal composite index in September declined to a relative low level since 2009. For output declines, price will rebounds in half ,2017 
1 Market information:
1.1 As for cereal composite index, global cereal price index was USD272/MT in September, declining 1.99% month on month and 6.75% year on year, the month-on-month figure saw decline for three successive months. It respectively decreased by 5.29% from June and 35.83% from historical highest level in September, 2012. 
Average price was USD280/MT from May to September, 2016, decreasing 7.64% year on year, and the actual year-on-year price declined 8.21% deducting the influence of USD
Global cereal composite price was USD278/MT from January to June, decreasing 9.48% year on year, and the actual price decreased 9.32% year on year deducting the influence of USD. Obvious decline of actual price in recent period significantly influence farmers’ income expectation as well as enthusiasm about sowing and filed management in 2016. 
From the perspective of global crude oil price, average contract price of crude oil of New York was USD332/MT, increasing 1.04% month on month and decreasing 0.78% year on year, raised 42.44% from the lowest level in February, decreased 66.96% from the highest level before economic crisis in 2008. Deducting the influence of dollar value, the actual price increased 1.13% month on month and decreased 1.08% year on year in September. International oil price is periodically high, which drives global agricultural production cost and logistics cost. 
In terms of price ratio between global crude oil and cereal, the price ratio of crude oil and cereal was 1.22 in September, increasing 3.1% month on month and 3.43% year on year. From the perspective of historical data comparison, price ratio between crude oil/cereal was in a historical normal section in September, which favors global grain production and is an important reason why sharp decline of global grain price didn’t cause sharp reduction of production. 
From the view of global macro economy, dollar composite index was 95.47% in September, increasing 0.09% from the month before, decreasing 0.32% year on year, seeing slight year-on-year decline for five successive months. From May to September, dollar value was appreciation-dominated from May to September, which significantly suppressed cereal price. Depreciation of USD later may cause sharp rise of global grain prices and even lead to food crisis, we should pay much attention to it. 
Prices of main grain crops by varieties
Wheat price: average monthly global price of wheat was USD234/MT in September, declining 0.98% month on month and 3.54% year on year, raised 2.32% from the lowest price in February, decreased 36.85% from the highest level of this round in 2011 and was near to the level in October, 2010. Deducting the influence of money value, the actual price of wheat declined 0.90% month on month and 3.87% year on year in September. 
From May to September, the average price was USD235/MT, decreasing 9.03% year on year; deducting the influence of USD value change, the actual price of wheat decreased 9.47% year on year. From January to September, 2016, the average price of wheat was USD234/MT, decreasing 9.03% year on year; deducting the influence of money value, the actual price of wheat decreased 9.47%. Sharp year-on-year decline in new crop year badly influences the sowing and production of winter wheat as well as global wheat supply in 2017/18. 
Corn price: global corn price was USD199/MT in September, decreasing 9.93% year on year and 2.21% month on month, seeing decline for three successive months. The price in September increased by 1.19% from the lowest level in February, decreased 45.23% from the high level in 2012, and was close to historical low level in February and March, 2009. Actual price increased 2.13% month on month but decreased 10.26% year on year in September. 
From January to June, 2016, the average price of corn was USD203/MT, decreasing 12.32% year on year, the actual price decreased 11.64% year on year. From August 2016 to July 2017, the average price is USD201/MT, annual prices of crop year and calendar year both are in historical low level, which will be bad for later production. Global corn price may see sharp growth later. 
Paddy (rice) aspect: average price of rice in September was USD456/MT, decreasing 2.54% month on month and 6.42% year on year, declining 29.74% from the high level in 2013. Current price still is low relatively, which is adverse for global production, continuous high value of USD lowered global rice price. 
From July 2016 to June 2017, the average price is USD465/MT, decreasing 7.10% year on year, the actual price decreases 6.80% year on year. The average price is USD477/MT in calendar year of 2016, decreasing 5.24% year on year; deducting the influence of USD, the actual price decreased 5.07% year on year. China continues to implement minimum purchase price policy, which provides great support for Asian main producing regions. 
Barley aspect: average price of barley was USD186/MT globally in September, decreasing 1.09% month on month and 10.39% year on year, increased by 5.50% from the lowest level at the beginning of this year and decreased 36.81% from the relative high level of this round of economic cycle in 2011. Deducting the influence of money value, the actual price decreased by 10.72% year on year and 1.00% month on month. A large quantity of new barley appears on the market, price is predicted to rise later. 
Sorghum: average global price of sorghum was USD170/MT in September, the actual price increased 1.68% month on month but decreased 6.38% year on year. Nominal price decreased 6.06% year on year and increased 1.60% month on month. The prices in this month and at the end of last year are the lowest level in this round of economic cycle, it’s predicted that sorghum price is likely to rebound later. 
Soybean: global average price was USD547/MT. The actual price decreased by 1.02% month on month and 7.46% year on year, while nominal price decreased 7.14% year on year and 1.11% month on month. Growth of sown area in North America led to the decline of international price in July, August and September. 
Monthly price of American oat was USD108/MT, decreasing 24.51% year on year. Low price of American oat in August and September will suppress the annual price in 2017. 
Comprehensive monitoring shows that global food prices are in historical low level, but recent prices are stable relatively in the context of relative high and stable dollar price. China’s import prices of rice and soybean products both rise up to varying degrees, big trade country effect of China should be paid close attention to. 
2 Development Trend of Production and Supply & Demand
Synthesizing monitoring on various aspects, price decline since 2016 has had adverse influence on farmers’ income expectation and led to reduction of cereal production in 2016. Rise of wheat, corn and paddy prices from March to July restrained sharp reduction of output, current estimated output increases compared with previous prediction, overall supply still is tight. 
2.1 Global cereal production: estimated sown area of cereal is 763 million hectares in 2016 globally, decreasing 1.16% from the year before. Per unit area yield is 3681kg/hectare, increasing 1.04% year on year. Total output is 2.814 billion tons (paddy is unhusked rice) decreasing 0.13% from the year before. After the paddy is converted into rice, the total output is 2.58 billion tons, decreasing 0.21% year on year. Output reduction and population growth have significant influence on global supply and demand. 
According to the development trend of global main countries in past five years, global sown area and output of cereal are predicted to be 764 million hectares and 2.981 billion tons respectively by 2020, and the total output will be 2.771 billion tons after the paddy is converted into rice. 
As for consumption, global population keeps rising in 2016 and is predicted to be 7.387 billion people, increasing 1.19% from the year before. Growth of global population sure will bring about consumption growth of food. 
Global cereal consumption volume is predicted to be 2.641 billion tons in 2016/17, which is equal to 156.4kg per person. Consumption surpasses production, global ending inventory declines to further low level and was 783 million tons, safety factor is 30.9%. According to the development trend of production and consumption in past five years, global ending inventory of cereal will drop to 589 million tons by 2020, safety factor will drop to 21.4%. 
From the perspective of production growth, key regions of global grain growth are Argentina, Ukraine, Australia and Canada, however, output growth in these regions can meet people’s demand for cereal consumption. Specific analyses are as follows: 
2.2 Wheat 
Global sown area, output and per unit area yield of wheat respectively are 215 million hectares, 727 million tons and 3381kg/hectares, respectively increasing -1.09%, 0.94% and 2.05% from the year before. Rise of wheat price from March to June was good for wheat production in the Northern Hemisphere, but wheat output in North America is waiting for confirmation. Wheat production in the Southern Hemisphere has obvious uncertainty. According the development trend in recent five years, global sown area of wheat will be 216 million hectares by 2020, and total output will reach 768 million tons. 
Consumption: in 2016/17, per capita consumption of wheat for food is 68.4kg annually, total per capita consumption of wheat is 98.8 kg annually, and total consumption of wheat is 730 million tons. Year-end inventory slides down and safety factor drops to 30.9%. Decline of safety factor sure will lead to rise of global wheat price. According to current trend, global ending inventory and safety factor of wheat will drop to 166 million tons and 21.1% by 2020/21. Low safety level should be paid attention to.  
2.3 Corn: global sown area, output and per unit area yield of corn respectively are 169.7 million hectares, 999.6 million tons and 5891kg/hectare, separately increasing -0.92%, -2.40% and 3.35% year on year. Price rise from March to June supported growth of sown area in the US, but the actual output still is waiting for confirmation. Reduction of output in China and EU is a foregone conclusion, which will significantly influence global output. 
According the development trend of main countries in recent five years, global sown area of corn will be 179 million hectares by 2020, growth of per unit area yield brings about the growth of total output which will be 1.321 billion tons, however, this output level still can’t meet global consumption demand. 
Consumption: grain ration consumption, feed consumption and other consumption respectively are 138 million tons, 545 million tons and 355 million tons in 2016/17, totally 1.039 billion tons. Converted into per capita consumption, total consumption, feed consumption, grain ration consumption and other consumption respectively are 140.6kg, 73.8kg, 18.7kg and 48.1kg, safety factor slides down as a whole. Global ending inventory and safety factor respectively drop to 293 million tons and 28.2%, which supports price rise later. 
According to current production and consumption trend, global ending inventory and safety factor of corn respectively will drop to 181 million tons and 15.9% by 2020. 
2.4 Paddy:sown area and output of paddy respectively are 161 million hectares, 734 million tons (converted into 499 million tons rice), separately increasing -0.46% and 0.75%. Per unit area yield is 4553kg/hectare. Rise of international paddy prices from February to May supported paddy production of countries except for China and restrained decrease of global sown area. 
According to the development trend in past five years, sown area, per unit area yield and total output respectively will be 168 million hectares, 4724kg/hectare and 825 million tons (converted into 591 million tons rice) by 2020. Chinese hybrid rice will be generalized in a large area beyond China, which will be good for global output growth sharply and guarantee global grain safety. 
Consumption: per capita consumption of rice is 69.1kg in 2016/17 globally. Rise of international prices restrained rice consumption, total consumption is 511 million tons, and rice consumption for food keeps stable. Global output is lower than consumption of the year, ending inventory and safety factor both decline to varying degrees. 
Coarse cereals: global sown area and output of coarse cereals respectively are 218 million hectares and 353 million tons in 2016, separately decreasing 1.94% and 10.03% from the year before. Affected by low price, coarse cereals production decreases significantly. 
Annual consumption is 362 million tons in 2016/17 and decreases somewhat from the year before. Under the influence of price on production and consumption, global overcapacity will be changed obviously 
2.5 Soybean: China imports more soybean, which drives the production in the Americas. Global sown area of soybean is 121 million hectares in 2016, increasing 1.59% year on year, soybean becomes the world’s fourth main grain crops. Total output is 318 million tons, increasing 3.68% year on year, and per unit area yield is 2624kg/hectare. Soybean is the only main food crop seeing sown area growth in this year. 
According to the development trend in recent five years, global sown area and output of soybean will reach 131 million hectares and 341 million tons by 2020. 
Consumption, annual per capita consumption will reach 41.83kg and global consumption will be 317 million tons in 2016/17. Output is greater than consumption, ending inventory and safety factor both increase obviously from the year before, which will restrain soybean price later, price decline is particularly obvious in selling countries.
According to current development trend, global business inventory of soybean will be 124 million tons by 2020, and safety factor will reach 36.40%, in a relative high level. 
2.6 Barley: global sown area and output respectively are 46.202 million hectares and 132 million tons, in 2016, separately decreasing 3.77% and 3.33% from the year before. Adverse weather condition in EU leads to output reduction. According to development trend of production in past five years, global sown area and output respectively will reach 50.289 million hectares and 141.8 million tons by 2020, output basically is balanced with selling. 
As for consumption, annual consumption is 140 million tons in 2015/16. Price rise makes consumption decreased in 2016/17, ending inventory and safety factor both drop. 

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