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China agricultural product trade monitoring and analysis, August, 2016  

2016-10-24 14:05:50|  分类: 对外贸易 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Customs data show that China’s import value of agricultural products increased month on month and year on year in August, 2016, while the export value saw growth year on year and month on month, trade deficit of agricultural products declined continuously.

1) General situation of agricultural product imports and exports: China’s total import value of agricultural products was10.14 billion USD in August, increasing 4.1% year on year and 7.3% month on month. Total export value was 6.43 billion dollars in August, increasing 14.4% year on year and 3.9% month on month, accounting for 3.4% of domestic total export value in the same month. Trade deficit of agricultural products was 3.71 billion dollars, decreasing 9.98% year on year, accounting for 1.9% of total export value of all commodities.

According to current development trend, China’s import value of agricultural products will be about 107.91 billion dollars in 2016, while export value will be about 74.12 billion dollars, trade deficit will decrease to about 33.79 billion dollars. Imports of agricultural products saw decline for two years in a row, USD appreciation restrained the growth of global trade volume.

Agricultural investment: in August, total investment in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery was 251.516 billion yuan, increasing 26.73% year on year, accounting for 4.6% of total social investment. Accumulative investment in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery from January to August was 1.3869 trillion yuan, increasing 20.4% year on year, accounting for 3.8% of total social investment.

Of that, the investment in primary industry was 207.7 billion yuan, increasing 26.03% year on year, trade deficit of agricultural products in August was about 24.641 billion yuan and accounted for 11.86% of the investment in primary industry, and the percentage was the lowest among the same months in recent five years.

As for investment in subdivided industries of agriculture, the investment in planting industry, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and agricultural service industry respectively was 109.508 billion yuan, 22.118 billion yuan, 64.918 billion yuan, 11.136 billion yuan and 43.804 billion yuan in August, respectively increasing 36.28%, 18.81%, 14.60%, 20.18% and 30.66% year on year. Growth rates of investment in various industries have great differences. Planting industry is the only industry seeing rapid growth, which lays foundation for the development of downstream industries.

As basic industry, growth of investment in planting industry is good for making up the negative influence of historical investment shortage. Driven by high profit, investment in animal husbandry industry rises up again. In view of sharp growth of investment, profitability of animal husbandry industry in spring of 2017 will drop to low level again or even turn to loss.

2) Grain import aspect: import value of grains including cereal, potato and soybean reached 3.73 billion dollars in August, decreasing8.2% year on year. The import volume of grains totally was 9.600 million tons in August, decreasing12.2% year on year.  Monthly import price of grain was USD394/MT in August, increasing 4.5% year on year and 2.4% month on month, realizing month-on-month growth for five successive months, and the accumulative growth rate was 19.7%, which promoted the year-on-year growth of grain price. The price in August increased 21.1% compared with the lowest level in March. Considering the influence of Renminbi depreciation against USD in the same period, comprehensive import price of grain increased 23.6%.

Analysis of Grain Import by Varieties: as for import volume, the import volume of cereal and its powder, soybean and other grains respectively was 1.56 million tons, 7.67 million tons and 370,000 tons, decreasing 37.85%, 1.4% and 42.2% year on year separately. The state lowered corn price, which obviously restrained imports of corn substitutes.

As for import value, the import value of cereal and its powder, soybean and other grains respectively was 398 million dollars, 3.29 billion dollars and 90 million dollars, decreasing 42.97%, -0.3 and 34.4% year on year separately.

With regard to import price, the average import price of cereal and its powder was USD255/MT, decreasing 8.24% year on year and increasing 3.98% month on month. Import price of soybean was USD429/MT, increasing 1.73% year on year and 2.4% month on month, realizing moth-on-month growth for five successive months, raising 14.58% from March. The monthly import price of other grains was USD222/MT, increasing 13.5% year on year and 12.67% month on month, realizing rebound for five successive months and raising 40.72% from the lowest level in December, 2015. Among other grains, the import volume, import value and import price of dry cassava respectively were 302,000 tons, 60 million dollars and USD190/MT, decreasing 61.7%, 51.8% and 20.59% year on year respectively, of which, the import price increased 9.47% from March.

From the perspective of current price rebounds of main products, international marco-economy also obviously influenced international prices, it’s estimated that domestic and international grain prices both will see great rebound after April and May, 2017.

According to current import progress, imports of cereal and cereal powder will drop to 22.93 million tons, soybean imports will increase to 84.18 million tons and imports of other grains will decline to 7.53 million tons. It’s key for solving agricultural problems to improve productivity of planting industry, production and operation of agricultural material industry and management of agricultural service industry.

Export aspect: export volume, export value and export price of grain respectively were 150,000 tons, 119.388 million dollars and USD796/MT in August, increasing 50.00%, 41.07% and -5.95% year on year separately. Of that, export volume and export price of cereal and its powder respectively were 40,000 tons and USD671/MT; export volume and export price of potatoes respectively were 60,000 tons and USD636/MT; export volume and export price of beans respectively were 50,000 tons, and USD1087/MT.

Export volume of grain was much lower than import volume, which shows that China’s international competitiveness of grain is lower.

Total import value of food raw materials including grain, meat, dry and fresh fruit, sugar and edible animal products and others reached 6.99 billion dollars, increasing 3.06% year on year, accounting for 69.0% of total import value of agricultural products, which decreased 0.70% from the year before. As for import volume, the total import volume reached 12.29 million tons, decreasing 8.08% year on year. 

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