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独立经济研究者,东方艾格农业、食品分析师,新华社特约经济分析师。农民出身,从事粮食加工技术、粮食棉花的行业、世界经济、公司战略研究,尤其关注中国粮食安全、宏观经济和国际食品企业的研究。 每日接受来自世界各地媒体关于粮食、棉花、物价、宏观经济的等以民生内容的采访。 现利用网络窗口便利同大家进行交流。

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Monitoring and analysis of China’s agricultural products trade, October, 2017  

2017-11-16 10:37:18|  分类: 食品行业研究 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Customs data show that China’s imports of agricultural products rebounded, and the exports increased slightly. Trade volume of agricultural products was great, deficit significantly increased. Industrial environment and macroeconomic environment together led to the decrease in international competitiveness of farm produce.

1) General situation of imports and exports of agricultural products: the total trade value of agricultural products was 16.78 billion dollars (110.1 billion yuan) in September, increasing 8.71% (6.92%) year on year. The imports and exports totally were 998.3 billion yuan, up 12.79% year on year.

In September, China’s total imports of agricultural products were 10.68 billion dollars, increasing 12.63% year on year; the exports of agricultural products totally were 6.10 billion dollars, up 2.5 year on year, accounting for 3.1% of total domestic exports. Trade deficit of agricultural products was 4.58 billion dollars, up 29.76% from the year before. This deficit accounted for 2.3% of the total exports of all commodities, and the proportion decreased 0.4% from the year earlier.

2) Agricultural investment: Trade deficit of agricultural products was equal to 30.04 billion yuan in September, accounting for 13.2% of domestic investment in agriculture. During the period from January to September, the deficit of agricultural products was 272.58 billion yuan, about 18.2% of the total investment in agriculture. As for the investment situations in September, the investment in primary industry totally was 227.1 billion yuan, increasing 14.18% year on year, and agricultural investment accounted for 3.53% of overall investment.

In September, the total investment in Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery was 262.5 billion yuan, up 10.39% year on year, accounting for 4.1% of total urban fixed asset investment. The investments in planting industry, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery respectively were 129.762 billion yuan, 23.429 billion yuan, 61.429 billion yuan and 12.465 billion yuan, separately increasing 20.27%, 0.52%, 7.18% and 19.72, while the investment in agricultural service was 35.484 billion yuan, down 8.75% year on year.

3) Grain imports: in September, the imports of grains including cereals, potatoes and beans were 4.05 billion dollars, up 7.8% year on year, accounting for 37.9% of the total imports of agricultural products. The total import volume of grain was 11.41 million tons, up 13.0% year on year, realizing significant growth for three successive months.

According to current import trend, the annual import volume of grain will reach 132 million tons, about 21.6% of the total output of grain in domestic. The total import value will reach 49.1 billion dollars. China’s self-sufficiency rate of grain will drop to 82.3%, down 10.5% from 2008, a record low level.

Imports analysis by varieties: in September, the import volume and import value of cereal and its powder were 2.35 million tons and 4565 million dollars, increasing 5.86% and 7.33% year on year. During the period from January to September, the total import volume of cereal and its powder was 20.31 million tons, up 12.21% year on year, and the import value was 4.976 billion dollars. According to current import trend, the import volume and import value will be 24.67 million tons and 6.1 billion dollars annually, and the import volume accounts for 4.42% of domestic output, so China’s self-sufficiency rate of cereal will decline to 95.58%, down 4.13% from 2008, the second-lowest level historically.

Monthly import volume and import value of soybean respectively were 8.11 million tons and 3.295 billion dollars, increasing 12.8% and 7.0% year on year. During the period from January to September, the accumulative import volume and the average import price were 71.45 million tons and USD416/MT, increasing 16.8% and 3.8% year on year. According to current import trend, the annual import volume and import value of soybean respectively will be 97.98 million tons and 39.5 billion dollars. The import volume of soybean accounts for 80.54% of the total import volume of grain, and the import value of soybean is about 31.36% of that of agricultural products.

The import volume and import value of other grains respectively were 950,000 tons and 190 million dollars, increasing 37.75 and 25.9% year on year. The import price in this month is USD201/MT, down 8.5% year on year. From January to September, the accumulative import volume was 6.97 million tons, up 1.2% year on year. The rise of corn price led to the growth of corn substitutes whose accumulative import price was USD199/MT, down 3.7% year on year. The monthly import volume of dry cassava was 820,000 tons, up 42.6% year on year, realizing growth for three successive months, and the import price was USD177/MT, down 6.0% year on year. From January to September, the accumulative import volume of dry cassava was 5.886 million tons, up 1.0% year on year. As planting area of corn decreased in domestic in 2017, the output is predicted to decline, which will lead to growth in cassava.

3) Vegetable oil imports: the import volume, import value and import price of vegetable oil respectively were 600,000 tons, 440 million dollars and USD733/MT, separately increasing 15.38%, 16.28% and 0.78% year on year. The monthly import value of vegetable oil accounted for 4.12% of the total import value of agricultural products. The import volume, import value and import price (CIF) of oilseeds respectively were 447,200 tons, 232 million dollars and USD520/MT, separately increasing 30.28%, 9.20% and -16.18% year on year. The total import value of soybean, oil plants and vegetable oil was 3.967 billion dollars, accounting for 37.1% of the total import value of agricultural products. The total import volume of soybean, oil plants and vegetable oil (converted into crude oil) was 2.23 million tons in September, up 14.7% year on year. From January to September, the total import volume of soybean, oil plants and vegetable oil (converted into crude oil) was 18.969 million tons, up 13.2% year on year.

4) Imports of edible animal products: the import volume, import value and import price respectively were 722,000 tons, 1.86 billion dollars and USD2571/MT, increasing -1.80%, 8.11% and 10.09% year on year. The import value of edible animal products accounted for 17.4% of the total import value of agricultural product in September. From January to September, the accumulative import volume, import value and average import price respectively were 6.731 million tons, 16.53 billion dollars and USD2456/MT, separately increasing -2.04%, 6.79% and 9.02% year on year.

5) Imports of other products

The import volume, import value and import price of dried and fresh fruit respectively were 360,000 tons, 472 million dollars and USD1310/MT, increasing 12.50%, 10.24% and -2.01% year on year separately. The import value of dried and fresh fruit accounted for 4.42% of the total imports of agricultural products. From January to September, the accumulative import volume, import value and average import price respectively were 3.46 million tons, 4.795 billion dollars and USD1386/MT, increasing 11.25%, 7.88% and -3.04% year on year.

In September, the import volume of sugar was 160,000 tons, down 68.0% year on year; the monthly average import price was USD446/MT, realizing a year-on-year growth of 24.2 times; and the import value of sugar accounted for 0.7% of the total imports of agricultural products. From January to September, the accumulative import volume of sugar was 1.83 million tons, down 29.9% year on year, and the import value decreased 6.8%. Sharp decline in import value for three successive months led to the year-on-year decline of total import value.

6) Over analysis of imports of edible agricultural products

The total import value of main food materials including grain, meat, dried and fresh fruit and edible animal products was 7.12 billion dollars, up 6.74% year on year. It accounted for 66.7% of the total imports of all farm produce, down 3.68% from the year before. From January to September, the total import value of these products was 64.22 billion dollars, up 13.28% year on year, and it accounted for 69.0% of the total imports of agricultural products, down 0.06% year on year.

The import volume of main food materials was 13.7 million tons in September, up 9.43% year on year. From January to September, the accumulative import volume was 119.87 million tons, up 11.84% year on year. Large imports of edible agricultural products significantly suppressed domestic market.

Large imports of edible farm produce have significant influence on the supply and demand of domestic agricultural food industry, so it’s imperative to improve China’s international competitiveness of agriculture. 

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