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独立经济研究者,东方艾格农业、食品分析师,新华社特约经济分析师。农民出身,从事粮食加工技术、粮食棉花的行业、世界经济、公司战略研究,尤其关注中国粮食安全、宏观经济和国际食品企业的研究。 每日接受来自世界各地媒体关于粮食、棉花、物价、宏观经济的等以民生内容的采访。 现利用网络窗口便利同大家进行交流。

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In September, China’s food prosperity index rebounded slightly but still was low.  

2017-11-16 10:38:12|  分类: 食品行业研究 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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In September, the prosperity index of food industry increased both month on month and year on year. Continuous decrease in actual investment has an influence on the prosperity of the whole industry, and will impact the technology upgrading and international competitiveness of the industry.

1 Consumption condition: the monthly retail value of catering industry was 331.7 billion yuan in September, up 10.2% year on year, and accounted for 10.75% of the total sales of the whole society, down 0.02% year on year. The retail turnover of food commodities of enterprises above designated size was 212.7 billion yuan, up by 7.7% year on year, accounting for 15.44% of the total retail sales of commodities of all enterprises above designated size.

Deducting the influence of price factor, in September, the consumption of the whole society increased 8.56%, of which, the actual consumption of catering industry increased 11.76%, the retail volume of grain and oil products increased 5.90%, and food consumption totally increased 10.74%.

Key enterprises: the consumption of catering enterprises above designated size was 85.6 billion yuan, up 6.0% year on year. It accounted for 25.81% of the total catering consumption of the whole society, down 1.06% year on year.

By industries, the consumption amount of grain &oil food, beverage and alcohol &tobacco respectively were 147.6 billion yuan, 21.5 billion yuan and 43.6 billion yuan, increasing 8.0%, 6.1% and 7.9% separately. According to historical data, they respectively increased 7.3%, 8.6% and 8.5%.

The sales of foodstuff of key enterprises monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased 3.5%, of which, the sales of grain &oil food, beverage and alcohol &tobacco respectively increased 3.4%, 4.0% and 4.4%. Deducting the influence of monetary factor, the sales of all commodities, food, beverage and alcohol &tobacco increased 3.76%, 4.02%, 2.80% and 3.20% respectively.

Comprehensively considering the consumption of major enterprises and the overall consumption of food industry, the national actual consumption of food industry increased 8.02%, up 0.62% from the month before and 2.16% from the year earlier. The growth in total consumption of food supported the rise of prosperity index.

2 Supply side, domestic output: In September, the added values of agricultural and sideline products manufacturing industry, food manufacturing industry and beverage industry respectively rose 6.2%, 9.3% and 9.7%, separately increasing 0%, 0.6% and -0.1%. Deducting the influences of factory prices, the actual output of agricultural and sideline products manufacturing industry, food manufacturing industry and beverage industry respectively increased 5.88%, 7.79% and 8.72%, and the comprehensive growth of food industry was 7.46%, decreasing 1.15% year on year and increasing 1.64% month on month. Sharp decline in exports and great growth in imports led to the decrease of production index.

3 Investment condition: in September, the investments in agricultural and sideline products, food manufacturing, beverage and accommodation & catering respectively were 124.6 billion yuan, 58.0 billion yuan, 41.7 billion yuan and 64.839 billion yuan, increasing by-3.86%, -5.07%,-4.95% and 13.25% year on year respectively. The total investment in these five industries was 289.124 billion yuan, increasing by -0.92% year on year. The decline in the growth of investment in food industry restrained the rise of prosperity index of food industry.

Deducting the influence of price rise, the actual investments in agricultural and sideline products, food manufacturing, beverage and accommodation & catering respectively increased by -10.76%, -10.76%, -11.28% and 6.35%, and the comprehensive growth rate was -7.82%. Continuous negative growth in investment restrained the rise of prosperity index.

4 From the perspective of industry profitability, in September, the aggregate price index of raw grain was 2330yuan/ton, while the wholesale price of processed grain was 3716 yuan/ton, so the price differences rate was 59.49%. The gross profit margin of grain industry was 13.88%. The sales margins of flour processing, japonica rice processing, indica rice processing, starch processing with domestic corn and alcohol processing with domestic corn respectively reached 15.20%, 14.04%, 15.19%, 7.23% and 13.18%.

Synthesizing consumption, investment, output and industrial profit ratio, the monthly prosperity index was 8.67 in September, at a low level. 

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