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独立经济研究者,东方艾格农业、食品分析师,新华社特约经济分析师。农民出身,从事粮食加工技术、粮食棉花的行业、世界经济、公司战略研究,尤其关注中国粮食安全、宏观经济和国际食品企业的研究。 每日接受来自世界各地媒体关于粮食、棉花、物价、宏观经济的等以民生内容的采访。 现利用网络窗口便利同大家进行交流。

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China’s grain prices rose, while global declined in March  

2017-04-18 21:08:13|  分类: 粮食行情分析 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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1) Wheat price: monthly wholesale prices were 2499yuan/ton in March, increasing 7.35% year on year (for five years in succession) and 0.48% month on month. Deducting the influence of monetary value, the actual price of wheat decreased 3.08% month on month and increased 2.64% year on year.

In the same month, global wheat prices were USD237/MT, decreasing 2.27% month on month and increasing 2.30% year on year. Deducting the influence of dollar value, global wheat prices increased 0.27% month on month and 3.35% year on year. In recent three months, actual global wheat prices increased both month on month and year on year. Global wheat supply tightened to some extent in 2016, China’s large imports of wheat significantly pushed global wheat prices up. At the same time, the production of winter wheat in the Northern Hemisphere may drop continuously in 2017, but it’s conductive to the recovery of spring wheat sowing. 

2) Paddy price: the monthly wholesale price of paddy was 2798yuan/ton in March, increasing 0.24% month on month and 1.12% year on year; deducting the influence of monetary price, the actual price of wheat decreased 3.32% month on month and 5.10% year on year.

Lowered minimum purchasing prices of various paddies by the state didn’t make nominal price down, which shows that current supply and demand situation of paddy is not so surplus as the market rumor; monopolized management of paddy market kept nominal price of paddy high.

3) Corn price: the monthly wholesale price of corn was 1595yuan/ton in March, up 2.33% month on month and down 17.05% year on year, and increased 39.93% compared with the highest level recorded. Deducting the influence of monetary price, the actual price of corn decreased 1.23% month on month and 21.76% year on year, seeing the most obvious decline among three main staple food grains and global grain varieties.

From the perspective of global changes in corn prices, global corn prices were USD191/MT in March, decreasing 3.14% year on year and 2.97% month on month; deducting the changes in dollar value, global corn prices decreased 6.20% month on month and 1.91% year on year. 

4) Barley: in March, the wholesale price of barley was 1639yuan/ton, increasing 1.23% month on month (the third growth in succession) and 3.86% year on year. Domestic barley prices have realized continuous year-on-year growth after October, the decline of imports led to the adjustment of domestic supply and demand situation and month-on-month growth in prices. Deducting the influence of currency, the actual price of barley decreased 2.33% month on month and 0.85% year on year. Sharp growth in barley imports improved domestic situation of supply and demand and suppressed the actual price of domestic barley in March.

In international market, global barley prices were USD175/MT in March, increasing 0.27% month on month and decreasing 0.60% year on year; deducting the influence of monetary value, the actual price of barley decreased 2.96% month on month and increased 0.64% year on year.

5) Sorghum: the monthly average price of sorghum was 1941yuan/ton, decreasing 2.19% month on month and 11.02% year on year in March; deducting the influence of monetary value, the actual price of sorghum decreased 1.37% month on month and 15.73% year on year; the actual decrease of sorghum price was lower than the decrease of corn price.

Global market; the monthly average price of sorghum was USD201/MT, decreasing 0.10% month on month and 3.31% year on year in March; deducting the influence of dollar value, the actual price of sorghum decreased 3.33% month on month and 3.90% year on year.

6)Soybean: in March, the average price of domestic soybean was 3784yuan/ton, increasing 0.78% year on year, and the spot price of soybean in domestic kept stable for three months in succession. Deducting the influence of currency factor, the actual price decreased 3.56% month on month and 3.93% year on year. Recently, soybean enters harvest time in the Southern Hemisphere, great growth in production leads to decline in global prices. 

In global market, the price of soybean was USD565/MT in March, decreasing 2.93% month on month and increasing 4.07% year on year. The actual price of soybean dropped 6.16% month on month and increased 5.30% year on year.

7) Potato: the retail price of potato was 4650yuan/ton in April, decreasing 0.92% month on month and 4.48% year on year; deducting the influence of monetary value, the actual price of potato decreased 4.48% month on month and 11.09% year on year. From January to March, 2017, the accumulative average price was 4646yuan/ton, increasing 1.14% year on year; the actual price decreased 1.30%.  
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