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独立经济研究者,东方艾格农业、食品分析师,新华社特约经济分析师。农民出身,从事粮食加工技术、粮食棉花的行业、世界经济、公司战略研究,尤其关注中国粮食安全、宏观经济和国际食品企业的研究。 每日接受来自世界各地媒体关于粮食、棉花、物价、宏观经济的等以民生内容的采访。 现利用网络窗口便利同大家进行交流。

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In July, China’s food prosperity index increased slightly from the month earlier  

2017-10-17 16:50:56|  分类: 食品行业研究 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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In July, the profit index of food industry went up slightly, consumption, investment, exports and output all declined, and the overall prosperity index decreased month on month and year on year, being 8.59%. The decline in actual investment growth showed the shortage of market confidence.

1 Consumption condition: the monthly retail value of catering industry was 320.4 billion yuan in July, increased by 11.1% year on year, accounting for 10.82% of total consumption value of the whole society, which increased 0.07% from the year before.  The retail turnover of food commodities of enterprises above designated size was 178.6 billion yuan and increased by 9.5% year on year, accounting for 14.88% of total retail value of all enterprises above designated size. Synthesizing catering and food retail of enterprises above designated size, the total food consumption was 499.0 billion yuan in July, increasing 10.52% year on year. The consumption of foods included in statistics accounted for 16.85% of total consumption of the society, up 0.02% year on year.

Deducting the influence of price factor, in July the consumption of the whole society increased 8.88%, of which, the actual consumption of catering industry increased 12.34%, retail volume of grain and oil products increased 7.78%, food consumption totally increased 11.75%. Deducting the influence of price factor in July, the growth rate of food consumption decreased, which pushed prosperity index down.

As for major enterprises, the consumption value of catering enterprises above designated size was 8.09 billion yuan in July and increased by 9.0% year on year, accounted for 25.25% of total catering consumption of the whole society, the proportion declined 0.65% from the same period last year. From January to July, the accumulative consumption value of catering enterprises above designated size was 534.2 billion yuan, increasing 7.5% year on year, accounted for 24.56% of total catering consumption of the whole society, the proportion declined 0.82% from last year.

As for subdivisions of food industry, the consumption value of grain & oil products, beverage and liquor & tobacco respectively was 124.6 billion yuan, 20.6 billion yuan and 33.4 billion yuan, increasing by 10.7%%, 10.6% and 7.6% year on year respectively. Except for beverage, the growth in sales of various products all declined.

According to the sales status of key enterprises monitored by the Ministry of Commerce, the retail sales of food, beverage and liquor & tobacco increased 3.5%, 4.9% and 5.2% in July respectively. Deducting the influence of prices, the retail sales of them respectively increased 3.71%, 3.90% and 4.20%.

Synthesizing the sales growth rate of whole society consumption and key commercial enterprises, the actual consumption growth of national food industry was 9.10% in July, decreasing 0.98% from the month before and increasing 3.03% from the year before. The decline in food consumption index of the whole society impacted the prosperity index of food industry.

 

2 Supply side, domestic output: In July, the added value of agricultural and sideline products manufacturing, food manufacturing industry and beverage respectively increased 6.0%, 7.2% and 8.3%, respectively increasing 1%, -2.7% and 1.3% year on year.

Deducting the influence of factory price, the growth rate of output of the whole society was 0.90%; the actual output of agricultural and sideline products manufacturing, food manufacturing industry and beverage respectively increased 6.43%, 5.82 and 7.76%, the comprehensive output of food industry increased 6.67%, down 1.14% year on year and 2.60% month on month.

Imports: the total import value of food products including vegetable oil, edible animal products, liquor, rice and flour products, dried and fresh fruit was 3.111 billion dollars in July, increasing 10.38% year on year, which is equal to an import value of 21.180 billion yuan and a retail value of 31.770 billion yuan which increased 14.11% year on year and accounted for 12.24% of food sales of enterprises above designated size, about 6.37% of the total sales of food of the whole society.

Food exports: the export value of food was 38.47 billion yuan(5.686 billion dollars), increasing 1.16% (down 0.16%) year on year in July; the accumulative export value was 265.5 billion yuan (38.299 billion dollars) from January to July, up 4.84% (down 0.61%) year on year. The export value accounted for 7.71% of total consumption value of food in domestic, down 0.42% from the year before. Rapid growth in imports and decline in exports suppressed the prosperity index of food industry.

3 Investment condition: in July, the investment in agricultural and sideline products, food manufacturing, beverage and accommodation & catering respectively was 113 billion yuan, 53.3 billion yuan, 35.5 billion yuan and 55.1 billion yuan, increasing by -4.39%, -2.64%, -7.46% and 7.49% year on year respectively. The total investment in these five industries was 256.9 billion yuan, increasing by -2.2% year on year, accounting for 4.5% of the total investment of the whole society. The accumulative investment was1.46 trillion yuan from January to July, increasing 2.8% year on year, accounting for 4.3% of yearly fixed-asset investment.

Deducting the influence of price rise, the actual investments in agricultural and sideline products, food manufacturing, beverage and accommodation & catering respectively increased by -9.89%, -8.14%, -9.99% and 1.99%, and the comprehensive growth rate was -7.65%. The investment in food industry has been decreasing year on year since December, 2016, which had adverse influence on China’s international competitiveness.

4 From the perspective of industry profitability, as for grain processing link, in July, the aggregate price index of raw grain was 2329yuan/ton, the wholesale price of processed grain was 3721yuan/ton, the price differences rate was 59.72% and decreased to some extent. Synthesizing the prices of rice, flour, starch and alcohol and corresponding raw grain prices and corresponding processing cost, the gross profit margin of grain processing industry was 13.21% in July. The weighted average of gross profit of processing and selling products was 503yuan/ton, of which, the gross profits of flour, japonica rice, indica rice, starch and ethyl alcohol respectively were 4521yuan/ton, 675yuan/ton, 589yuan/ton, 141yuan/ton and -58yuan/ton, and their profit ratio of sales respectively was 15.40%, 14.70%, 14.70%%, 6.26% and -1.32%. Considering basic management fee of 150yuan/ton and average logistics fee of 160-200yuan/ton, the actual net profit declined further.

Synthesizing consumption, investment, output and industrial profit ratio, the monthly prosperity index was 8.59 in July, the lowest level over the past six months.

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