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独立经济研究者,东方艾格农业、食品分析师,新华社特约经济分析师。农民出身,从事粮食加工技术、粮食棉花的行业、世界经济、公司战略研究,尤其关注中国粮食安全、宏观经济和国际食品企业的研究。 每日接受来自世界各地媒体关于粮食、棉花、物价、宏观经济的等以民生内容的采访。 现利用网络窗口便利同大家进行交流。

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China’s food prosperity index in February hit a record low  

2018-04-11 19:44:40|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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In February, the prosperity index of food industry hit a record low, and the investment remained low. The consumption and exports both fell sharply, while the imports increased significantly, which affected the business situation of the industry.

1. Consumption: From January to February, the total retail sales of catering industry reached 661.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% (equivalent to a per capita consumption of 238 yuan, up 5.23% over the previous year). According to historical data, the growth rate of catering consumption was 5.8%, down 4.83% from the previous year. The retail sales of food commodities of enterprises above designated size were 360.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%. The monthly sales income of food enterprises above designated size (including tobacco) was 816.1 billion yuan, 22.07% of which came from the sales of food products (including tobacco) of commercial enterprises above designated size. Food sales of retail enterprises above designated size accounted for a larger proportion of the sales of companies above designated size, but there is still a large space.

In terms of retail sales of catering enterprises and food enterprises above designated size, the consumption of market-oriented food amounted to RMB 1.0215 trillion in January and February, a year-on-year decrease of 0.22%, accounting for 62.58% of the total food sales of all above-scale enterprises. The consumption of foodstuffs accounted by the National Bureau of Statistics accounted for 16.72% of the total consumption of the whole society, a decrease of 0.94% from the previous year.

Excluding the influence of price factors, the actual consumption of catering industry increased 1.33%, the retail sales of grain and oil products increased by -10.64%, and food consumption totally decreased 4.43%. The decline in prosperity index of food industry was in line with the sharp decline in the sales volume of food in the Ministry of Agriculture's key wholesale markets.

As for key enterprises, according to the monthly data of enterprises above designated size, the average monthly consumption of catering enterprises above designated size was RMB 74.0 billion, an increase of 7.1% over the same period of last year, accounting for 22.38% of the total catering consumption of the society,  which decreased by 1.52% from the previous year. According to historical data, the monthly growth rate is -0.9%, which is lower than the growth rate of the same period last year.

From January to February, the monthly average consumption of grain and oil products was 123.7 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7% over the same period, and a decrease of 10.2% in accordance with historical data. The average monthly beverage consumption was 16.6 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2% year on year, and the growth rate decreased by 10.3% according to historical data. The consumption of tobacco and alcohol was 39.9 billion yuan, an increase of 9.5% year on year, and a growth of 7.6% based on historical data.

 

From the sales of key commercial enterprises monitored by the Ministry of Commerce

Overall situation: from January to February, the retail sales of commodities increased by 4.2%, and food sales rose by 4.4%. Among them, the retail sales of grain & oil products, beverage, and tobacco & alcohol increased by 3.8% , 6.5%, and 6.9% respectively. Excluding the influence of price factors, the sales of foods, beverage, and g tobacco & alcohol grew by -0.48%, 5.2%, and 5.6% separately.

Online consumption of the whole society increased by 37.3% year on year, the growth rose by 6.00% over the previous year; food consumption increased by 57.3%.

Comprehensively considering social consumption and sales growth of key commercial enterprises, the actual consumption growth index of national food industry in January and February was -3.64%, a decrease of 3.64% from the previous year. The decline in the total food consumption index brought down the prosperity index, indicating that the current economic situation is extremely unsatisfactory.

2. As for domestic output in supply, the growth in the added value of farm and sideline food processing, food manufacturing, and beverage was 6.8%, 7.3%, and 8.5%, respectively, increasing 0.5%, -0.4%, and -0.9% separately over the previous year.

Excluding the influence of factory prices, the actual output of farm and sideline food processing, food manufacturing, and beverage increased by 7.66%, 6.03%, and 6.79% respectively, and the comprehensive output growth index of the food industry was 6.83%, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous year.

For imported food supply, the total import amount of food products including vegetable oils, edible animal products, alcoholic drinks, rice and flour products, and fresh and dried fruits was USD 3.413 billion (equivalent to RMB 22 billion, accounting for 2.69% of the sales revenue of food enterprises above designated size) in February, an increase of 18.53% over the same period of the previous year. The import value is equivalent to a total retail sales of RMB 33 billion, up 10.74% year on year, accounting for 12.97% of total retail sales of enterprises above designated size and 6.45% of the total food sales of the whole society, which were 2.11% and 1.77% higher than those of the previous year.

During the period from January to February, the imports of food amounted to 57.4 billion yuan, which was 3.52% of the sales revenue of enterprises above designated size. The imports are equivalent to a retail sales of 86.1 billion yuan, an increase of 26.33% over the previous year, accounting for 16.95% of the total retail sales of food enterprises above designated size and 8.43% of the total retail sales of commodities of the whole society. The rapid growth of imported foods had a significant impact on domestic production index.

In terms of subdivision categories, in February, the imports of vegetable oil, edible animal products, alcohol imports, rice &flour and baby packaged foods, and fresh and dried fruits were 267 million U.S. dollars, 1.722 billion U.S. dollars, 331 million U.S. dollars, 341 million US dollars, and 752 million US dollars respectively, increasing -14.92%, 5.11%, 31.50%,12.41%, and 102.03% year on year.

Food exports: In January and February, total exports of farm and sideline food processing, food manufacturing, and beverage were 54.22 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.35% from the previous year, which is a significant contrast with the imports growth of 26.33%. The exports accounted for 3.83% of the sales revenue of food enterprises above designated size and 5.31% of total domestic retail sales of food. The proportion in the total retail sales of food in domestic decreased by 0.83% from the previous year.

The converted annual exports of food are USD 8.504 billion, down 7.91% year on year, which forms a contrast with the increase of 18.53% in imports. In January and February, the monthly exports of farm and sideline foods reached 35.4 billion yuan, up 3% year on year, down 16.3% based on historical data; the exports of food manufacturing totaled 15.49 billion yuan, up 3.8% year on year, down 2.49% based on historical data; the exports of alcohol drinks and refined tea amounted to 3.33 billion yuan, up 13.5% year on year, decreasing 6.20% according to historical data.

3. As for investment in sub-divided industries: the state has not announced the actual amount of investment, and only announced the year-on-year increase of enterprises above designated size. From January to February, the investment in farm and sideline food processing, food manufacturing, and beverage respectively was 60.959 billion yuan, 32.583 billion yuan, and 20.56 billion yuan, increasing 6.2%, 4.10%, and -10.60% year on year respectively. Since 2017, the investment in beverage industry has been declining. The investment in accommodation and catering amounted to 40.3 billion yuan, up 14.7% year on year, which indicates an expected recovery of economy in the later period. The total investment in these five industries was 154.421 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.16%, keeping a relatively stable growth.

Excluding the impact of price increase, the actual investment in farm and sideline food processing, food manufacturing, beverage, and accommodation and catering respectively increased 2.50%, 0.40%, -14.3%, and 11.00%, totaling 1.46%. Lower investment level can’t support the rise of prosperity index.

4. From the perspective of industry profitability, in grain processing sector, the comprehensive price index of raw grains in February was 2,372 yuan/ton, while the wholesale price index for finished products of grain was 3,776 yuan/ton, and the spread rate was 59.22%, seeing some growth from the previous month. Considering the price indexes of energy and power, the gross profit margin of food industry in was 13.05% in February. The weighted average gross profit of processing and sales of products was 516 yuan/ton in this month. By varieties, the weighted average gross profits for flour, japonica rice, indica rice, starch, and alcohol respectively were 446 yuan/ton, 792 yuan/ton, 559 yuan/ton,, 140 yuan/ton, and 446 yuan/ton, and the profit of japonica rice was the highest in history. The return on sales of flour processing, japonica rice processing, indica rice processing, domestic corn starch processing, and alcohol processing with domestic corn as raw material respectively was 13.05%, 16.74%, 13.78%, 5.81%, and 8.56%.

Comprehensively considering the indicators of consumption, investment, output, and industry profitability, the monthly prosperity index was 5.64, which was a historically low level.

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